Statement from Prof. Dr. Şener Üşümezsoy on the Sındırgı earthquakes: Are these the footsteps of a larger earthquake?

Prof. Dr. Şener Üşümezsoy made notable statements. Üşümezsoy shared information regarding both the "earthquake swarm" and how the tremors are expected to progress.

IS FREQUENT EARTHQUAKE ACTIVITY A RISK?

Answering the question of whether frequent earthquakes in the same region could be a harbinger of a major earthquake, Prof. Dr. Üşümezsoy said the following:

From this, we can conclude the following: I want to explain two concepts. First, the occurrence of many earthquakes does not in itself constitute a risk.

On the contrary, if the fault alignments are in the form of very small fractures, as is the case in Santorini, or in areas around Simav and Yeşildere, we call this an “earthquake swarm.” An earthquake swarm consists of earthquakes that break small segments and release energy bit by bit, rather than major earthquakes that tear through a main fault line.

"THERE ARE MANY SMALL FAULTS"

Continuing by saying, "Now, after this information, let's come to the earthquakes in Sındırgı," Üşümezsoy added: We had stated that the faults in the Sındırgı alignment here are earthquakes occurring on newly formed small faults. There are many small faults around Sındırgı Mountain. When one of these spread over an area of approximately 100-107 kilometers, the second 6.1-magnitude earthquake occurred.

A series of small earthquakes are occurring inside the mountain here. Some of these are magnitude 5, meaning they are formed by the tearing of a surface of approximately 3 kilometers. Some are magnitude 4, meaning fractures with a diameter of 1 kilometer. If there were a magnitude 6 earthquake, a surface of 100-300 kilometers would need to be torn.

Looking at it in this sense, the earthquakes that are constantly occurring on new faults here do not show the potential for a magnitude 6 or 6.5 earthquake because they are within the same area. However, energy accumulation can occur in the sections between two magnitude 6 earthquakes.

WILL A MAJOR EARTHQUAKE OCCUR?

Answering the question of whether a new major earthquake is coming, Şener Üşümezsoy used reassuring expressions. "As a result, I had a suspicion of 'Will a third major earthquake come?', but as of today, this suspicion has also decreased. Because all these earthquakes remained within the same area.

If these earthquakes had spread in another direction, they could have created new fracture faults.

However, there is currently a fractured fault system and we cannot find a new surface," said Üşümezsoy, adding, "For this reason, a new major earthquake does not appear likely. Despite all these small earthquakes over the last four or five days, an 'earthquake swarm' is not a harbinger of a new major earthquake. If a stress map has been drawn around a fault system, it only shows that energy is being released."