Which country wants whom? Will Donald Trump or Kamala Harris win the election?

WHO DOES ISRAEL WANT?

Following HAMAS's raid on October 7 last year, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his cabinet have found all kinds of support from the Joe Biden-Kamala Harris duo in power in the US during Israel's attacks on Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran.

However, the hearts of Israelis are still with Trump. According to a poll by Israel's Channel 12 news, a large majority of 66 percent of the public wants the former president to be re-elected. In fact, support for Trump rises to 93 percent among those who vote for Prime Minister Netanyahu's far-right government.

'END THE WAR'

During Trump's time, the US embassy was moved from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, Israel's annexation of the Golan Heights in Syria was recognized, and a normalization process known as the Abraham Accords was initiated with Arab countries. While there are comments that the Republican candidate might allow Israel to remain in the Gaza Strip if elected, according to a report by The Times of Israel based on two sources, Trump told Netanyahu to "end the war" in Gaza by the time he takes the US presidential seat on January 20, 2025, if he wins the election.

WHO DOES PALESTINE WANT?

PALESTINIANS expect pro-Israel policies to continue regardless of who becomes president in the US. For this reason, there is a tendency among Palestinians who are US citizens and have the right to vote to support a third candidate. Jamal Zaglul, a US entrepreneur of Palestinian origin working in the olive harvest in the occupied West Bank, says, "We have problems here. No one in the US cares about us." Another dual citizen, Basim Sabri, says he plans to vote for a third-party candidate to protest the "eight years of miserable US administration."

Odeh Juma, who is based in California but visits Palestine several times a year, points to the military support the US provides to Israel and states that politicians ignore demands for ending wars in Palestine or Ukraine for the sake of their own electoral interests.

WHO DOES UKRAINE WANT?

Ukraine is among the countries locked into the elections in the US. Kyiv, which has received weapons and military training from the West in the war that has been ongoing since Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine in 2022, hopes to find the same support from the US Administration if Democratic Party candidate Harris is elected.

On the other hand, there is Trump, who says he gets along well with Russian leader Vladimir Putin and that he could end the war in a day. However, it is also being discussed that if Trump cannot find the conciliatory attitude he expects from Russia, he could arm Ukraine more strongly. Although Russian leader Vladimir Putin tried to troll the US elections by saying, 'We support Harris,' the memory of the two leaders speaking the same language during the Trump era remains.

WHO DOES EUROPE WANT?

In European Union and NATO countries, favorites in the US elections change depending on who is in power. Donald Trump, who is a kind of inspiration for the far-right nationalist movement in Europe with his 'Make America Great Again' slogan and anti-immigration stance, finds support from populist parties that are in power or are coalition partners in countries such as Hungary, Italy, and the Netherlands.

The possibility of leaving Europe alone in the Ukraine war and his stance toward European NATO allies in the face of the Russian threat, 'if you do not increase your defense budget, you will not find support,' are met with concern. Furthermore, Trump's promises to increase customs duties on European-made products are also being watched with concern in the EU. There is also an expectation that a possible Kamala Harris presidency would ask Europe to do more for themselves.

WHO DOES CHINA WANT?

In fact, since the Barack Obama era, the US has considered China its main adversary. Therefore, it is certain that whoever is in power in the US will keep a close watch on Beijing. On the other hand, the US-China trade war that started during the Trump era could flare up. If it faces additional tariff walls in exports to the US, the Chinese economy may have to face new challenges. It is known that Washington is uncomfortable with China's support for Russia in the Ukraine war. Beijing, on the other hand, is not pleased with the US backing Taiwan's independence.

The Chinese administration is also reactive to the Biden administration's rapprochement with neighboring countries such as India, Japan, and Taiwan. Beijing hopes that if Trump is elected, the US will stop seeking cooperation with regional countries and its backyard will be relieved.

WHO DOES THE US WANT?

The result of the presidential election to be held in the US on November 5 may be determined by Muslim voters who will vote according to the candidates' approaches to Israel's ongoing genocide in Gaza.

Osama Jamal, Secretary General of the US Council of Muslim Organizations (USCMO), the umbrella organization of Muslim civil society organizations in the US, said they are very angry at the Biden Administration, which does not even send humanitarian aid to Palestine while sending military aid to Israel, and that they hold Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris responsible for this as well.

'CEASEFIRE' DEMAND

On the other hand, emphasizing that Muslim votes, which correspond to between 1 percent and 1.5 percent in the US, are very important in swing states where candidates are neck-and-neck like Michigan, Jamal recalled that the votes in this state in 2020 were influential in Biden winning the presidency against Donald Trump by a small margin.

However, pointing out that this time Muslim voters want to vote for a third party as a reaction to the Democrats and Republicans regarding Gaza, which divides the votes, Jamal shared the view, "From now until election day, I hope we can become a little clearer about supporting one of the candidates. The only thing we need right now is a real ceasefire in Gaza."

FRENCH BETTOR WAGERED 30 MILLION DOLLARS ON TRUMP

Just two days before the presidential election to be held in the US on November 5, bets on which candidate will win are also increasing.

An investor interviewed by the American newspaper Wall Street Journal (WSJ) said he had placed a 30 million dollar bet on the possibility of Republican candidate Donald Trump winning. The French investor, who identified himself as "Theo," said, "I have no political agenda. My goal is just to make money."

'SHY VOTER'

Explaining that he previously lived in the US and worked for banks, the French investor said he has been placing bets of varying amounts in favor of Trump since August on Polymarket, a prediction market not open to Americans. Citing the 2016 and 2020 polls that failed to predict the support Trump would receive, Theo stated that the polls could not accurately measure the Republican candidate's vote percentages.

According to the French investor, there are also many "shy voters" who are hesitant to say they will vote for Trump.

Recent polls indicate that there is a very small difference between the vote percentages of Trump and his Democratic rival Kamala Harris.

According to the report, if Theo's Trump bets pay off, he could more than double his money and win about 80 million dollars. If Harris wins, he risks losing most, or worse, all of his money.