Academic Fatih Yaşlı assesses: 'It is too early for a global war'

12punto.com.tr Cenk BAŞBOĞAOĞLU

The US-Iran tension, which has dominated the agenda in the Middle East for weeks, has resulted in a hot war. Assoc. Prof. Fatih Yaşlı explained the regional and global dimensions of the war and its future to 12punto.

'IT IS TOO EARLY FOR A GLOBAL WAR'

Academic and author Assoc. Prof. Fatih Yaşlı evaluated the possibility of the US-Iran war evolving into a global dimension, stating: "It is still too early to say many things; we can only make certain predictions. In my opinion, there is no possibility of a global war at the moment because neither the US nor China wants a global war right now; furthermore, a monolithic opposing front capable of fighting against the Western alliance has not yet been established. Humanity is likely heading toward a new world war, but it must be pointed out that this will be a more long-term process rather than something that will happen overnight. Today, the US attacking Iran after Venezuela, wanting Greenland, the new pacts it has established, energy policies, etc., all stem from the general crisis that US capitalism is experiencing and the weakening of its hegemony. This is why the US is so aggressive; it can only resolve the crisis it is experiencing through wars. However, as I said, I think it is too early for a global war. On the other hand, there is a possibility that the war could turn into a regional war, but one must be careful here as well; because there is no other state that can fight alongside Iran right now. Iran is hitting them too, but there is no need for the Arab sheikhdoms to enter the war directly while the US-Israel are present. As for the Popular Mobilization Forces, Hezbollah, and the Houthis, they could join the war in proportion to their own strengths in line with Iran's strategic goals and depending on the course of the process in a very short time."

'THE GOAL IS REGIME CHANGE'

US President Donald Trump said, "The goal is to eliminate threats originating from the regime. Iran will never have nuclear weapons." Pahlavi, on the other hand, called for a return to Iran, saying, “We are very close to final victory.” Yaşlı emphasized the “regime” factor of the war, stating: “Of course, the main goal is to create a collaborative regime on the ruins of an Iran destroyed by attacks. How successful they can be in this, as I said, it is too early to say anything definitive. Trump's statement addressing the Iranian people, saying 'stay in your homes, you will come out when we are done,' shows that the goal is regime change. If they think this call will go unanswered, they will likely want to find someone within the state to cooperate with. However, we should not ignore the possibility that all of this could backfire. For now, we see that Iran is carrying out very harsh retaliatory attacks on Israel and US bases in the region. Depending on the destruction they cause, these retaliations could have a deterrent effect on the US and Israel.”

'A VERY HEAVY ATTACK PROCESS MAY BE EXPERIENCED'

Regarding the possibility that a loss of reputation for the US against Iran could weaken US global hegemony, Yaşlı said: “As I said, the US is already in such an aggressive state because its global hegemony is weakening. Trump may push all conditions to the limit, both to repair this hegemony and to win the midterm elections to be held in November; a very heavy attack process may be experienced. On the other hand, the possibility of them calling for a table again and spreading the war over time is also quite high. This is all that can be said for now; the picture will become clearer in the coming days.”

'THEORETICALLY POSSIBLE'

Iran has launched an all-out attack on US bases, and Iranian State Television said, “We are targeting all US bases in the region.” Regarding the possibility of Turkey being included as a target after Israel, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait, Yaşlı said, “It is theoretically possible, but at this stage, they may avoid taking steps that would mean taking on Turkey. If it is understood that Turkish territory is being used openly and clearly in the attacks, then they will of course adopt a different stance.”

'THE COURSE OF THE WAR...'

Regarding the course of the war in the coming days, Yaşlı said: “There are signs that the US attacks may be on a larger scale and long-term rather than narrow-scoped and short-lived. How much damage they can inflict on Iran, how many people from the management cadres they can kill, to what extent they can bring opposition groups to the streets, and how Iran will respond to these, its capacity to cause damage to the US-Israel, and also how much Russia and China will increase their support for Iran, despite not entering the war, will determine the course of the war.”

News Source: 12punto