Growing backlash over TurkStat's 129 percent 'perceived inflation' announcement

12 Punto columnist Meriç Köyatası has assessed that the inflation figures announced by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) do not reflect the true situation.

Köyatası noted the following:

"TurkStat must have been influenced by the public backlash, as they conducted a survey and admitted that the 64.77 percent inflation they announced for 2023 is actually perceived by society as 129 percent. In this case, I can rightfully take some credit. Because I do not trust TurkStat, I have been creating my own separate basket and calculating inflation for two years.

On December 30, 2023, I announced the 2023 inflation as exactly 129.92 percent on my YouTube channel, and my X and Facebook accounts.

ENAG had announced the inflation for 2023 as 127.21 percent. As far as I know, ENAG uses TurkStat's consumption basket and collects much more widespread data, measuring it much more realistically. My measurements and ENAG's are neck and neck. I said exactly 129.92 percent. I captured the perceived rate. This means the consumption basket I prepared is very realistic. In TurkStat's consumption basket, the weight of food is 25 percent, while in mine it is 35 percent... Oxfam, the UK-based organization that researches income inequality, announced the share of food expenditures in poor countries defined as sub-Saharan as 40 percent. Since Turkey has not yet fallen to the sub-Saharan level for now, I added my own observations and determined the weight of food expenditures as 35 percent, not 25 percent like TurkStat."

"WE MUST SEEK OUR RIGHTS..."

Stating that for years they have been calculating wage and salary increases based on TurkStat's inflation account, Köyatası said, "They have effectively plundered the incomes of retirees and wage earners. We must seek our rights. On January 21, 2024 (yesterday), I wrote in 12 Punto about the losses retirees have suffered over the last two years. There were doubts about TurkStat's inflation calculation, but heavy doubts and distrust began especially with the lowering of interest rates in October 2021. I have been measuring since 2022. I calculated the losses suffered by the minimum wage and retirees. The result is this:

Those interested in the long calculation can find how I did it at the end of the article. However, the minimum wage that should have been at the beginning of 2024 is not 17,002 TL, but 34,311 TL according to ENAG's two-year inflation, and 43,874 TL according to my own two-year measurement. Considering that the average wage level for blue-collar workers in the collective bargaining agreement in the Metal industry sector made a few days ago is 80,000 TL, it becomes clear how realistic this level we found for the minimum wage is. As for retirees, it is their most natural right to demand that it be equalized to at least the minimum wage, or even 40 percent above the minimum wage level from before the AKP government."

RESPONSE TO TURKSTAT'S CRITICISMS

Meanwhile, regarding TurkStat's statement that ENAG "does not calculate prices that remain fixed, they only look at those that increase," Köyatası explained, "For example, internet and phone subscriptions do not increase every month; they remain fixed for a year. I don't know about ENAG. But there is no such thing in my calculations.

In my basket, there are prices that remain fixed for 12 or even 24 months. For example, within the costs of car ownership, I do not write the TÜVTÜRK vehicle inspection as just a 2,000 TL payment for that month. I divide it by 24 months and keep it fixed for 24 months. Similarly, I divide car insurance equally over 12 months. Internet subscriptions, phone subscriptions, and the monthly dues I pay for housing remain fixed for a year and do not increase. Moreover, since the 100 percent hike made to these products the following year does not enter the inflation calculation in a single lump sum, there are no abnormal ups and downs. Again, differently, I weight sudden increases in seasonal clothing and doctor examination fees not just for that month, but as an annual average expenditure item. I am not measuring the inflation I feel, but the inflation of people who live like me," he noted.

12punto columnist Meriç Köyatası also stated the following:

HOW THE LOSSES IN MINIMUM WAGE WERE CALCULATED:

I only went back to the beginning of 2022. One could go back further. But I have been measuring inflation for two years. The deviation in TurkStat's measurements already began in the final months of 2021.

January 2022 Minimum Wage = 4,250 TL. Lowest Pension = 2,500 TL

2022 Inflation Experienced: ENAG 137.55 percent, Meriç K Inflation: 200.15 percent

End of 2022 = Minimum wage 5,500 TL. Lowest pension 3,500 TL

Minimum wage that should have been at the end of 2022:

According to ENAG: 4,250 x 2.3755 = 10,095

According to Meriç K Inflation: 4,250 x 3.0015 = 12,756 TL

Minimum wage at the end of 2023: 11,400 TL

2023 inflation ENAG 127.21 percent, Meriç K Inflation 129.92 percent

Minimum wage that should have been at the end of 2023:

According to ENAG 10,095 x 2.2721 = 22,937 TL

According to Meriç K inflation: 12,756 x 2.2992 = 29,328...

Minimum wage determined for 2024: 17,100 TL

Accepting the Central Bank's 36 percent inflation target for 2024, provided it is corrected later if it turns out higher, the minimum wage that should be:

According to ENAG 22,937 x 1.36 = 31,194 TL

According to Meriç K inflation 29,328 x 1.36 = 39,886 TL

If we add a 10 percent welfare share equal to the growth rate of the two years on top of these wages, the minimum wage that should be is 34,313 TL according to ENAG inflation and 43,874 TL according to Meriç K inflation.

Considering that the average wage level for blue-collar workers in the latest collective bargaining agreement by Türk Metal is 80,000 TL, it is understood how reasonable this minimum wage level we found is.

As for retirees. I refuse to make calculations based on 2,500 TL for retirees. The lowest pension should be equalized to the minimum wage in the worst-case scenario. If the period before the AKP is taken into account, it should be increased to 40 percent above the minimum wage. (43,960 – 61,400)"

Additionally, Köyatası noted, "While my inflation measurements and ENAG's measurements in 2022 went in parallel until August, there was a sudden rise in my measurements in September, October, and November, after which the monthly measurements began to go in parallel again. (137 percent and 200 percent) If I take ENAG's monthly measurements as a basis instead of the monthly inflation I measured in September, October, and November to eliminate the deviation in the last three months of 2022, then my 2022 inflation will be 149.07 percent, not 200.15 percent. If this correction is made, the level the minimum wage should be for 2024 is 37,480 TL according to Meriç K inflation. I will work in the coming days on whether or not I should make a correction for this deviation," he said.

News Source: 12punto