Academic Fatih Yaşlı analyzes US-Iran tensions: 'It could trigger a civil war'

12punto.com.tr

Cenk Başboğaoğlu

The US-Iran tension, the hot topic of the Middle East, has sparked international debate. Assoc. Prof. Fatih Yaşlı shared his insights with 12punto on how the crisis could have both regional and global effects, and more.

'UNLIKE THE VENEZUELA EXAMPLE...'

Academic and author Assoc. Prof. Fatih Yaşlı, regarding claims by former CIA official John Kiriakou that the US would launch a military operation against Iran based on information from the White House, said: "Until the last week, the main question asked about the issue was 'is the US buildup in the region a bluff to convince Iran at the table, or a sign of an impending attack?' However, with the continuation of the US buildup, it has started to be discussed that the US has always launched an attack in all its previous heavy buildups of this kind, and that a similar process is now being experienced. Indeed, even though the Trump administration stated in the National Security Strategy document published just a few months ago that it would focus on the Western Hemisphere, and the Middle East occupied a very small place in the document, the general consensus now is that an attack on Iran is extremely imminent. We do not know what Kiriakou bases his claim on, but I think that at least one more round of negotiations could be possible, or if not that, there could be a bit more bargaining for that round, so I think Monday or Tuesday might be too early."

Regarding the potential consequences of such an operation, Yaşlı said: "However, whether it happens in the next day or two, or in a few weeks, an attack on Iran will create both regional and global effects. Here, of course, the main issue hinges on the intensity of the attack and what will be targeted. That is, we need to see whether we will see a limited attack in terms of duration and scope as in previous times, or whether the US will launch a destructive and prolonged attack this time. Because the form and duration of the attack will also determine Iran's response. A limited attack will receive a limited response, and the current status quo will continue until the next one; however, if the US launches a comprehensive and prolonged attack, it may receive a similar response, and as Israel could become a very serious target for Iran, the possibility of a kind of regional war increases with the participation of pro-Iranian forces in Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen. On the global level, the West will of course stand by the US as always; Russia and China, even if they do not directly intervene in the war, unlike the Venezuela example, may get more involved this time."

'IT COULD TRIGGER A CIVIL WAR'

Yaşlı evaluated the claims of a major operation by Trump that could target Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei as follows: "I am not very sure if the Venezuela scenario will be repeated in Iran and if Khamenei can be smuggled out of his country like Maduro. We can assume that the state apparatus in Iran is more robust than in Venezuela and that the homogeneity in the ruling bloc is stronger. On the other hand, it is known that the regime in Iran is increasingly losing its legitimacy and there are serious tensions between the public and the regime. This, of course, does not apply to the entire Iranian public; a significant portion of the public still supports the regime. On the other hand, an imperialist intervention could also trigger a state of anti-imperialist mobilization independent of pro-regime or anti-regime sentiment. However, here too, the content and scope of the US attack will play a serious role. Trump had directly called on the protesters in the recent uprisings and said, 'we are coming, wait.' Now, with the attack, the public will likely be wanted to be brought to the streets once again by saying 'we have arrived.' On the other hand, the Iranian state is aware of the role played by US and Israeli agents in the previous uprising, and therefore they are expected to take various precautions. Therefore, a US attack this time could trigger much bloodier processes and perhaps a kind of civil war, which would mean a very big crisis not only for the regime but for all of Iran, and of course, it would affect the entire region."

'IT COULD CREATE SERIOUS EFFECTS'

When asked how the US-Iran tension in the Middle East could affect Turkey if it results in a possible war, Yaşlı replied: "This, like the other topics, is related to the scope and duration of the war; a limited attack would not create serious effects. However, a destructive attack and the possibility of the war being on a regional scale could lead to other consequences. A major attack or a possible kind of war could, for example, trigger mass migration towards Turkey. On the other hand, US bases in Turkey could become targets for Iran and attacks could be carried out on them. The moves to be made by PKK-affiliated forces in Iran and the position that the Turkish population will take could also potentially create serious effects on Turkey."

News Source: 12punto