AKP's loss of votes deepens... CHP widens the gap: The Ekrem İmamoğlu surprise!

The AKP, which emerged victorious from the 2023 general elections, faced a picture contrary to the promises it made, especially in the field of the economy, following this process.

Rising inflation, the high cost of living, and economic insecurity weakened the party's support among the public; the March 31, 2024, local elections were a concrete indicator of this erosion. For the first time in its history, the AKP finished an election as the second party.

The local election results were particularly notable for the losses in provinces where the party was strong, such as Adıyaman, Afyonkarahisar, Şanlıurfa, Bursa, and Denizli. The vast majority of these provinces shifted to the CHP. This situation showed that the AKP lost votes not only in metropolitan cities but also in regions where it was traditionally strong.

HBS SURVEY: ERDOĞAN BEHIND IN THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE

The survey conducted by HBS Research with 3,200 people strikingly revealed the erosion within the AKP.

In the survey, participants were asked to choose between Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Ekrem İmamoğlu in a possible second round of the presidential election with the following question:

"If the following possibilities were to occur in a possible 2nd round of presidential elections, which candidate would you vote for?"

According to the responses, 51.7 percent of the participants stated that they would vote for Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality Mayor and potential presidential candidate Ekrem İmamoğlu. The rate of those who said they would vote for Erdoğan remained at 40.3 percent. The rate of those who stated they were undecided was recorded as 8 percent.

In the same survey, a similar question was asked for Ankara Metropolitan Municipality Mayor Mansur Yavaş.

While 51.4 percent of the participants stated that they would vote for Yavaş, the rate of those who said they would support Erdoğan was 39.2 percent. In this scenario, the rate of undecided voters was measured at 9.4 percent.

These results showed that both İmamoğlu and Yavaş are superior to Erdoğan in potential presidential candidacies.

CHP IS THE CLEAR LEADING PARTY IN ISTANBUL AND ANKARA

In the parliamentary survey conducted by HBS Research specifically for Istanbul and Ankara, the decline in the AKP's vote share was seen more clearly. Participants were asked the question, "If there were a parliamentary election this Sunday, which party would you vote for?"

While 36.7 percent of voters in Istanbul stated that they would vote for the CHP, the rate of those who said they would vote for the AKP remained at 28.2 percent.