CHP base has made its decision: Striking results in new party scenario

The impact of the leadership debates following the absolute nullity ruling within the Republican People's Party (CHP) has emerged in public opinion polls. While it is observed that the majority of the CHP base opposes the court decision, a significant portion of voters expressed the view that the solution lies in a new party congress.

With the absolute nullity ruling issued by the Ankara Regional Court of Justice on May 21, the duties of CHP Chairman Özgür Özel and his administration were terminated, and former Chairman Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu and his team were reinstated.

The appeal against the decision was rejected by the Supreme Election Council (YSK). The YSK stated that disputes regarding the congresses of political parties should be evaluated within the scope of private law.

While the process continues at the Court of Cassation stage, the administration at the CHP Headquarters, which was vacated under the supervision of security forces in line with the instructions of the Ankara Governorship, passed to Kılıçdaroğlu's team.

Özgür Özel described the events as a "political coup carried out by the judiciary" and announced that he would continue his struggle under the roof of the Parliament. Appearing at the CHP Group Meeting with the announcement of "Chairman," Özel stated, "A congress must be held before July 26. Entering the election is becoming endangered."

Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu also said in his speech at the CHP Headquarters, "We will terminate the employment of all those who are dirty; we will be cleansed of filth," and stated that a congress would be held in the coming period, adding, "I promise to bring you an ethical and virtuous congress."

KONDA: 80 PERCENT OF CHP VOTERS OPPOSE THE DECISION

A study conducted by the public opinion research company KONDA in May with 1,514 people in 67 provinces revealed the public approach toward the absolute nullity ruling.

According to the research, 52 percent of participants stated that they found the decision wrong, while 11 percent stated they found it correct. 37 percent of the participants did not express a clear opinion on the decision.

Evaluating the research, KONDA General Manager Aydın Erdem said that a significant portion of those who said "neither right nor wrong" consisted of AK Party and MHP voters.

Erdem stated that similar attitudes were seen previously during the periods of Ekrem İmamoğlu's conviction, the December 17-25 process, and the Sedat Peker videos.

The attitude of CHP voters in the research was much clearer. 80 percent of CHP voters found the absolute nullity ruling wrong, while 8 percent said they found it correct. 12 percent did not express an opinion.

CHP BASE'S PRIORITY IS A NEW CONGRESS

According to the KONDA research, 53 percent of CHP voters argued that the party should rapidly go to a new congress.

The rate of those who think Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu should become chairman again was measured at 5 percent.

Aydın Erdem stated that Kılıçdaroğlu's political weight continues, but it seems difficult for him to build broad support within the CHP base in the current picture.

The research also showed that 40 percent of AK Party voters and 31 percent of MHP voters support Kılıçdaroğlu's return to the post of CHP Chairman.

STRIKING RESULT IN NEW PARTY SCENARIO

The Turkey Agenda Research, conducted by Gündemar Research between May 24-27 with 2,275 people in 60 provinces, also revealed noteworthy results.

The research concluded that if Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu remains as CHP Chairman, nearly half of the voters could cast a protest vote.

Participants were asked about their preferences in a scenario where Kılıçdaroğlu remains at the head of the CHP and Özgür Özel, Ekrem İmamoğlu, and Mansur Yavaş form a new party.

After the distribution of undecided voters, it was seen that the newly formed party rose to the position of the first party with a vote share of 35.65 percent.

Gündemar Research General Manager Tamer Bolat stated that this result reflects not only CHP voters but also voter support from different political tendencies.

IS THE CHP VOTER IN FAVOR OF A NEW PARTY?

According to the research, approximately 72 percent of voters who stated that they voted for the CHP in the 2023 elections expressed that they would vote for the newly formed party.

In the same research, 12 percent of CHP voters stated that they would remain in the current CHP.

Bolat said that the CHP base primarily wants the party to continue with its CHP identity, but if the belief that change is not possible under current conditions strengthens, the tendency toward new political formations could increase.

VOTER'S SOLUTION FORMULA: CONGRESS

In the Gündemar research, participants were also asked how the debates in the CHP could be resolved.

45 percent of the participants expressed the view that "the CHP should go to a new congress as soon as possible."

A 29 percent segment argued that Özgür Özel should continue his duty as the chairman with political legitimacy.

The rate of those supporting Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu's return to duty was measured at 21 percent.

When evaluated specifically for CHP voters, 49 percent wanted a new congress, while 45 percent stated that Özgür Özel should continue his duty. The rate of CHP voters who want Kılıçdaroğlu to return to duty remained at 4 percent.

"UNEASE" DATA FOR KILIÇDAROĞLU

One of the striking headlines of the research was the sentiment measurements toward political leaders.

Participants were asked which emotion they were closer to between "trust and hope" and "unease and anxiety" for various political figures.

Tamer Bolat stated that voters are polarized according to their political affiliations regarding Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Ekrem İmamoğlu, Mansur Yavaş, and Özgür Özel, but a different picture emerges when it comes to Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu.

Bolat stated that unease and anxiety are felt for Kılıçdaroğlu in almost all voter groups at rates reaching 80 percent.

YAVAŞ STANDS OUT IN PRESIDENTIAL SCENARIOS

Scenarios regarding the second round of a potential presidential election were also tested in the research.

After the distribution of undecided voters, it was seen that Ekrem İmamoğlu received 56 percent to 44 percent against Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Mansur Yavaş received 59 percent to 41 percent, and Özgür Özel received 53 percent to 47 percent support.

In the scenario where Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu and Erdoğan face off, it was noted that the total rate of protest votes and undecided voters reached approximately 50 percent.

GENAR President İhsan Aktaş, who is close to the government, said he predicts that the majority of the CHP's core voter base will position themselves alongside Özgür Özel.

Aktaş stated that after the last local elections, the CHP received support not only from its traditional voter base but also from segments with different political preferences.

Stating that if internal party debates are prolonged, this new voter group could turn toward the undecided voter category, Aktaş noted that the picture formed in the first period in potential new party scenarios could change over time.

Hilmi Daşdemir, President of Optimar, another public research organization close to the government, said it is too early to evaluate the effects of the process in the CHP on voters.

Daşdemir stated that expectations of vote rates above 30 percent in new party scenarios are not realistic, and that a healthy evaluation cannot be made before the ideological structure and cadres of new formations become clear.

News Source: 12punto