Danger bells ringing for 2028: The ruling party continues to melt in the polls

SER-AR Research has announced the results of a poll conducted between December 5-8, 2025, across 26 provinces in Turkey.

The poll examined the vote percentages that different candidates received against Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in a presidential election.

The research was conducted using the computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI) method, with a total of 2,200 voters surveyed, and a confidence interval of 95% with a margin of error of ±1.95%.

In the research, the vote percentages that opposition candidates won against President Erdoğan in two different scenarios drew attention.

Ekrem İmamoğlu - Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Scenario:

Ekrem İmamoğlu: 44.5%

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan: 42.2%

Mansur Yavaş - Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Scenario:

Mansur Yavaş: 48.4%

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan: 41.8%

These results highlight the strong position of Ankara Metropolitan Municipality Mayor Mansur Yavaş against Erdoğan. Yavaş appears to have achieved a significant margin in his race against Erdoğan.

On the other hand, the 2.3% margin that Ekrem İmamoğlu holds against Erdoğan is also noteworthy.

While presenting the poll results to the public, SER-AR Research stated that it defines itself as "independent and impartial." The company has conducted and published the results of many political polls in the past.