Erdoğan's final card revealed: 'Until October 2027...'

In the political agenda, potential formulas regarding President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's re-election continue to be debated. While the option of moving up the elections, which are scheduled for 2028 according to the normal calendar, is being discussed by the public, it is stated that different scenarios are also being evaluated within ruling party circles.

At a time when the opposition continues to call for early elections in the streets and various scenarios are being voiced through different names, it is stated that alternative paths are being considered within the AKP both to win the election and to have Erdoğan nominated again.

“TIMING” CALCULATION FOR ERDOĞAN

Nefes columnist Nuray Babacan shared a striking piece of insider information in her column today. The article states that some AKP members have expressed that Erdoğan will look for ways to hold elections at a time he deems suitable for himself until October 2027.

Babacan reported that the assessment being made for Erdoğan is: "He will determine the date of the election whenever he believes he will emerge with an advantage."

PARLIAMENTARY SYSTEM SCENARIO

The headline that stands out in the article is the claim of a return to the parliamentary system. It is stated that the return to the parliamentary system, which is among the election promises of the Republican People's Party (CHP), is being discussed in the corridors as one of the possibilities facing Erdoğan.

According to the alleged information, if the polls conducted and analyses made indicate that the election will be lost, a constitutional amendment will be brought before Parliament in October 2027, and a return to the parliamentary system will be proposed. According to those voicing this claim, it is suggested that Erdoğan is calculating that he would have a better chance under this system.

According to the assessment of AKP members, the fact that the promise of a return to the parliamentary system came to the fore at the CHP's latest grand assembly is also being taken into account in this scenario. Accordingly, it is stated that the CHP could nominate Mansur Yavaş as its presidential candidate, and if the election is won, Ekrem İmamoğlu could be offered the prime ministry.

If this scenario does not materialize, comments are being made in the corridors that a CHP president with the current powers would have been prevented.

While it is stated that a constitutional amendment or an early election is needed for Erdoğan to be able to run again, the statements by People's Alliance partner Devlet Bahçeli, which closed the doors to early elections, have also become a subject of debate.

According to the interpretation of AKP figures, it is stated that Bahçeli is referring to the upcoming two-year period. While it is assessed that economic indicators do not make an election possible in the short term, it is stated that an election held in March 2028 could be seen as an "election moved up, not an early election." It is stated that there are figures within the party pointing to November 2027, but that certain thresholds in economic indicators must be exceeded for a decision to be made in this direction.

At the end of her article, Babacan also included an assessment made by an AKP politician in a private conversation. The unnamed politician said, "The voter is like a woman; she is patient, she waits, but when she decides to leave one day, no matter what you do, she does not turn back from her decision. She does it so quickly that you will be surprised. Politics means establishing an emotional bond with the voter. When this breaks, you won't find anyone behind you. Most of the politicians we have ignore this. You cannot understand this relationship with normal mathematical calculations..."