It started with Bahçeli's move: Here is Erdoğan's new election calculation!

In October 2024, while the MHP group meeting was underway, Bahçeli’s words changed Turkey’s agenda. Bahçeli’s statement, "Let Öcalan come and speak in Parliament, let him shout that the organization is finished," was widely discussed. Following this statement, a new "solution process" was initiated between the government and the DEM Party after many years.

THE "TERROR-FREE TURKEY" PROCESS

The AKP and MHP named this process "Terror-Free Turkey." As part of the process, DEM Party delegations visited İmralı multiple times to meet with the terrorist leader Öcalan. Following these meetings, Öcalan complied with Bahçeli’s call and instructed his organization to lay down its arms and dissolve itself.

Shortly after Öcalan’s call, the so-called leadership of the separatist terrorist organization announced that it had decided to lay down its arms and that the organization had been dissolved. In a symbolic ceremony held on July 11, the organization’s weapons were burned. According to security sources, the process of surrender and destruction of the organization is still ongoing.

COMMISSION ESTABLISHED IN PARLIAMENT

The latest step on the political stage was taken in the Grand National Assembly of Turkey. A special commission established within the scope of the process continues its work by hearing from various non-governmental organizations. The commission’s report is expected to be announced to the public in the coming period.

"ELECTION" CALCULATIONS IN ANKARA CORRIDORS

Different scenarios are being discussed regarding why the process was initiated. Journalist Nuray Babacan, known for her reports from the Ankara corridors, shared the perspectives of AKP figures on the process in her column. According to AKP politicians who spoke to Babacan, even if President Erdoğan believes in the process, he primarily thinks that this move will win him an election.

AKP MEMBERS' ASSESSMENT: "THERE MAY BE A SPLIT IN DEM"

According to what Babacan reported, the assessments within the ruling wing are as follows:

The fundamental reason for the debates in the Middle East is the "nation-state" concept. While Turkey acts with a strong emphasis on the nation-state, the US advocates for a federative structure. The US and Israel favor a fragmented Middle East.

The Turkish state turned toward the opening process by taking into account developments in Syria. It is calculated that if Turkey completes the integration of Kurds into society, it will not be affected by regional developments.

Even if President Erdoğan believes in the process, he keeps his election calculation at the forefront. If the efforts succeed, the organizational pressure on the DEM Party will be lifted.

In such a situation, it is possible for those with leftist views within DEM to split. The emergence of new Kurdish movements and having more than one representative for Kurds would work in the government’s favor.

"A PROCESS ON A KNIFE'S EDGE"

According to what is being discussed in the Ankara corridors, regional plans abroad and political calculations at home have become intertwined. For this reason, the new solution process, just like in past examples, is proceeding "on a knife's edge."