New constitutional moves in Parliament: Lobbies are buzzing! 'List promise' from the ruling party

The AKP has entered a new process to reach critical seat numbers in order to pass constitutional amendments directly in Parliament. The ruling party's representative power has increased remarkably with recent MP transfers. With deputies joining the AKP one after another by changing parties, the picture emerging in the general assembly in favor of the ruling party has become the center of new constitutional debates.

Among the latest names to join the ruling party are Mersin MP Hasan Ufuk Çakır, who resigned from the CHP; Istanbul MP İsa Mesih Şahin, who remained independent after leaving the Future Party (Gelecek Partisi); and Kahramanmaraş MP İrfan Karatutlu, who announced his resignation from the DEVA Party. With the participation of these deputies, whose party badges were pinned by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the number of AKP seats in Parliament has risen to 275.

With the latest updates, the total number of MPs in Parliament has dropped to 592; this change is due to the passing of deputies, individuals moving to mayoral positions, and seats vacated due to appointments.

THE NEW PICTURE IN PARLIAMENT

The latest seat distribution among the parties is as follows: A total of 592 MPs are serving, with the AKP at 275, CHP at 138, DEM Party at 56, MHP at 47, IYI Party at 29, New Way Party (Yeni Yol Partisi) at 20, Independents at 9, New Welfare Party (Yeniden Refah Partisi) at 4, HÜDA PAR at 4, Workers' Party of Turkey (Türkiye İşçi Partisi) at 3, Democratic Regions Party (Demokratik Bölgeler Partisi) at 2, Labor Party (Emek Partisi) at 2, Felicity Party (Saadet Partisi) at 1, Democratic Left Party (Demokratik Sol Parti) at 1, and Democrat Party (Demokrat Parti) at 1.

The goal of 400 deputies, which would allow for constitutional amendments without a referendum, remains difficult to achieve. While the AKP, MHP, HÜDA PAR, and DSP, united under the People's Alliance (Cumhur İttifakı), reach a total of 327 deputies, this number rises to 383 when the 56 seats of the DEM Party are added. This figure still remains below the 400 seats required for a constitutional amendment without the need for a referendum.

The number of MPs the AKP has transferred from different parties has reached 14 with the latest moves. However, even with these efforts, the constitutional amendment remains behind the critical threshold.

NEW CONTACTS WITH INDEPENDENTS AND THE IYI PARTY

According to the report by Merve Kılıç from Cumhuriyet, the AKP is approaching some independent MPs with promises of candidacy in future elections. It is being discussed that they are in contact with independent MPs who have not yet made a final decision, as well as with the IYI Party, and that this process could lead to new defections. It is being voiced that in the AKP's transfer moves, not only today but also the next election period is being taken into account, and promises such as a 'spot on the list' have become an important tool.

These developments have caused alarm bells to ring in the ranks of the opposition, especially for the CHP and the IYI Party. With every new defection, the number of opposition seats in Parliament decreases, while the ruling bloc moves one step closer to a majority. In political lobbies, it is assessed that the constitutional amendment process is effectively deadlocked by the current picture in Parliament and that existing balances have become even more fragile.

As the mathematics in Parliament change, the constitutional debates seem to have gained new momentum. The stance of independents and smaller parties, along with potential new transfers, could determine the course of the political equation.