'Grassroots alliance' reflected in polls: İmamoğlu ahead of Murat Kurum in latest survey: The İYİ Party and DEM detail...

Spectrum House has shared the results of its January 2024 "Istanbul Voter Tendency Report" research.

According to the report in BirGün; When looking at the general satisfaction levels of participants with Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IMM)  Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu,it is observed that 18% expressed their opinion as 'Very Satisfied', 31.8% as 'Satisfied', 15.2% as 'Undecided', 17.4% as 'Not Satisfied', and 15.7% as 'Not Satisfied at All'.

While these data show that approximately half of the participants are satisfied with the IMM and approximately 33% are dissatisfied, the undecided group drew attention with 15.2 points.

İMAMOĞLU AHEAD OF KURUM

In the study, a comparison was made between Ekrem İmamoğlu and the AKP's Istanbul candidate, Murat Kurum.

When looking at the participants' views on which mayoral candidate could best address the city's current and potential

problems regarding Istanbul's earthquake risk,

it was observed that 35.2% chose Ekrem İmamoğlu, while 33.5% responded with Murat Kurum.

It was noted that 3.1% suggested other candidates, 15.8% did not think any candidate could address this issue, and 12.4% had no opinion or refrained from answering.

In the survey, participants were also asked about their tendencies to vote for Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality mayoral candidates Ekrem İmamoğlu and Murat Kurum. 

42.6% of participants said they would "vote for" Ekrem İmamoğlu, while 38.4% answered "I would not vote for him." Those who answered "I am undecided" were at 19%.

While 29.8% of participants said they would "vote for" Murat Kurum, 48.5% answered "I would not vote for him." 21.7% said "I am undecided."

When looking at the preferences between the two candidates among participants who answered "Undecided" or "I will not vote" for the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality election to be held on March 31, 2024, it was seen that 33.1% were more likely to vote for CHP candidate Ekrem İmamoğlu.

The rate of those more likely to vote for Murat Kurum was 18.9%. While the rate of those stating they would not vote for either was 12.7%, the rate of those who remained undecided was observed to be 35.3%.

WHAT IF DEM PARTY FIELDS A CANDIDATE?

34.4% of participants who voted for the Green Left Party on May 14, 2023, noted that they "find it correct" for the DEM Party to field a candidate for the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality and that they support such a candidacy. In contrast, 55% were seen to express the view that "No, they should not field a candidate." While 5.3% answered "I am not sure/Undecided," it was observed that the same percentage of participants (5.3%) said they were "not interested" in the matter.

'İMAMOĞLU' RESPONSE FROM İYİ PARTY AND DEM PARTY VOTERS

When looking at the voting preferences of participants who voted for the Green Left Party in the May 14, 2023 elections in the event that the DEM Party fields an independent candidate for the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality, it was seen that 64.3% stated they would vote for the DEM Party's candidate.

23.3% stated that they would vote for Ekrem İmamoğlu. The rate of those who are undecided is observed to be 9.3%.

When looking at the voting preferences of participants who voted for the İYİ Party in the May 14, 2023 elections in the event that the İYİ Party fields an independent candidate for the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality, 25.8% stated they would vote for the İYİ Party's candidate. In contrast, a significant 49.2% said they would vote for Ekrem İmamoğlu.  While the rate of those stating they would vote for Murat Kurum was 5.3%, the rate of undecided voters was observed at 19.7%.

RESEARCH PROFILE

"The field research, conducted between January 17-20 with 1,815 people aged 18 and over residing in 25 districts within the Istanbul provincial borders, was carried out using the stratified random sampling method. Quantitative analysis and the CATI (Computer-Assisted Telephone Interviewing) data collection technique were used as the research method.

Sample selection was based on 2023 general election data for district-based representation capability, and TÜİK (Turkish Statistical Institute) data for age, gender, and education. Taking the May 14, 2023, election results into account, the sample was created using the proportional allocation method. The research has a margin of error of ±2.3 at a 95% confidence level."

News Source: 12punto