MetroPoll Istanbul poll: Who is running against İmamoğlu and how many votes are they getting?

Turkey has entered the atmosphere of local elections. While political parties are gradually announcing their mayoral candidates for the local elections on March 31, 2024, polling companies continue their public opinion research.

Finally, the results of the poll conducted by MetroPoll Research in Istanbul have emerged.

WHO IS RUNNING AGAINST İMAMOĞLU AND HOW MANY VOTES ARE THEY GETTING?

In the poll conducted between December 9-13 with 1,500 people in 39 districts of Istanbul via computer-assisted telephone interviews, it was investigated how many votes each candidate could receive if Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu were to compete against Selçuk Bayraktar, Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya, or former Minister Murat Kurum.

According to the research, if İmamoğlu and Bayraktar face each other, İmamoğlu receives 45.1 percent of the votes and Bayraktar receives 38 percent. 16.9 percent say "I have no opinion."

If İmamoğlu and Yerlikaya face each other, İmamoğlu receives 46.6 percent and Yerlikaya receives 37 percent. 16.4 percent say "I have no opinion."

If İmamoğlu and Kurum face each other, İmamoğlu receives 48.2 percent and Kurum receives 33.9 percent. 17.9 percent say "I have no opinion."

Sözcü columnist İsmail Saymaz carried the aforementioned MetroPoll Research poll to his column.

İsmail Saymaz's article is as follows:

In addition to those mentioned these days, three names stand out:

President Erdoğan's son-in-law Selçuk Bayraktar

Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya

Former Minister of Environment, Urbanization and Climate Change Murat Kurum

MetroPoll Research, owned by Prof. Özer Sencar, focused on the Istanbul elections in its December research. Between December 9-13, computer-assisted telephone interviews were conducted with 1,500 people in 39 districts of Istanbul.

It was investigated how many votes each candidate could receive if Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu were to compete against Bayraktar, Yerlikaya, or Kurum.

İYİ Party and DEM Party voters say 'İmamoğlu'

According to the research:

If İmamoğlu and Bayraktar face each other...

İmamoğlu receives 45.1 percent and Bayraktar receives 38 percent.

16.9 percent say "I have no opinion."

79.6 percent of İYİ Party voters and 75 percent of DEM Party voters state that they will vote for İmamoğlu.

Bayraktar, on the other hand, receives 11.5 percent support from İYİ Party voters and 2.7 percent from DEM Party voters.

Yerlikaya is 9.6 points behind

If İmamoğlu and Yerlikaya face each other...

İmamoğlu receives 46.6 percent and Yerlikaya receives 37 percent.

16.4 percent say "I have no opinion."

80.4 percent of İYİ Party voters and 69.6 percent of DEM Party voters support İmamoğlu.

Yerlikaya, on the other hand, obtains 12.5 percent of the votes from İYİ Party voters and 6.3 percent from DEM Party voters.

If İmamoğlu and Kurum face each other...

İmamoğlu receives 48.2 percent and Kurum receives 33.9 percent.

17.9 percent say "I have no opinion."

84.2 percent of İYİ Party voters and 75 percent of DEM Party voters say they will vote for İmamoğlu...

6.1 percent of İYİ Party voters and 2.7 percent of DEM Party voters note that they will vote for Kurum.

When evaluating this data, it is necessary to keep in mind that İYİ Party and DEM Party candidates were not included as an option in the poll.

I consider it certain that the İYİ Party and the DEM Party will field candidates in Istanbul. However, the quality of the candidates they determine and the campaigns they conduct will affect the attitude of the two parties' voters. Accordingly, İYİ Party and DEM Party voters may turn to their own candidates. In that case, a decrease may occur in İmamoğlu's potential votes.

Nevertheless, İYİ Party voters are expected to mostly support İmamoğlu. Among DEM Party voters, although party loyalty is high, a significant community of voters may turn to İmamoğlu.

To measure the possible effect of the decision that İYİ Party and DEM Party voters will make in the election, it is necessary to look at the distribution of the votes İmamoğlu received on March 31 and June 23, 2019.

22.1 percent of İmamoğlu's votes on March 31, 2019, came from the DEM Party, and 15.2 percent came from the İYİ Party.

21.4 percent of his votes on June 23 came from the DEM Party, and 11.9 percent came from the İYİ Party...

İmamoğlu should prepare according to the worst-case scenario, that is, as if the DEM Party and the İYİ Party will field their own candidates and conduct effective campaigns.

It has been finalized that the People's Alliance (Cumhur İttifakı) will field a joint candidate. It will receive the support of the New Welfare Party (Yeniden Refah Partisi), HÜDA PAR, and the BBP, which have a significant number of votes in Istanbul.

In contrast, the opposition front is very fragmented.

For now, only Muharrem İnce has declared support for İmamoğlu.

The Felicity Party (Saadet), Future Party (Gelecek), DEVA Party, and Victory Party (Zafer) will field their own candidates.

Furthermore, some Kılıçdaroğlu supporters are investing in an Istanbul defeat. If İmamoğlu loses, they will invite the CHP to an extraordinary congress on April 1.

That is why they are provoking voters against İmamoğlu. It will be a difficult election for İmamoğlu.

However, İmamoğlu is not the unknown and inexperienced candidate of five years ago. It has been a long time since his political power and influence exceeded the borders of Istanbul province. He is the leader of the change in the CHP and, together with Özel, one of the two strong men of the party.

Naturally, the candidate closest to crossing the finish line is İmamoğlu.

If he wins, on the night of March 31, we will learn both the mayor of Istanbul and the presidential candidate of 2028.

Perhaps even the president...

News Source: 12punto