Striking behind-the-scenes report on CHP heading to convention: The real reckoning is after the local elections

Journalist Aytunç Erkin shared assessments from CHP circles, stating: “As we enter the week of the CHP convention, the situation is complicated… Whoever wins the chairmanship, the Party Assembly lists will see a record number of cross-outs. The real reckoning is after the local elections. In the meantime, whichever side creates a better perception of ‘we are winning’ will cause a breakdown on the other side.”

“A NECK-AND-NECK RACE”

In his article written days before today's convention, Erkin shared the following assessments:

First observation: For the first time before a CHP convention, no one can make a definitive, confident prediction. In a way, this is good. It shows that it is a neck-and-neck race. On the other hand, it is bad; there is a lack of trust in the delegates. Think of it this way… In Istanbul, Ekrem İmamoğlu collected signatures from delegates. 185 delegates signed. But whoever you ask, the majority say, “Don't look at the signatures… They might sign, but they will vote differently.” This is a picture that shows the division, distrust, and lack of politics within the party. The CHP leader set the convention's slogan as “Democracy and unity in the second century,” but “unity” is only in words. Before moving on to predictions about how many votes each candidate will receive, let's look at the moves of both sides.

“THE ‘CHANGE’ FACTION GAINED STRENGTH IN THE LAST TWO WEEKS”

Second observation: The “change” faction has gained strength in the last two weeks. The fact that the change advocates worked more organized and had more economic resources played a role in this. However, Kılıçdaroğlu's meetings with DEVA Party district chairs, his statements regarding who he would hand the party over to, and his proposal of Ekrem İmamoğlu as the convention chair—these three events strengthened the change advocates.

“80 PERCENT OF DELEGATES HAVE DEFINITELY MADE UP THEIR MINDS”

Third observation: 80 percent of the delegates have definitely made up their minds. 20 percent are still undecided. In the final week, Kılıçdaroğlu will try to strengthen the message “I am here until the local elections, make your calculations accordingly” by meeting with provincial chairs and marking the mayors.

"THE CHANGE FACTION HAS SOUTHEASTERN DELEGATES IN ITS SIGHTS"

Fourth observation: The change faction is trying to be influential, especially over the Southeastern delegates, by using all its resources. Meanwhile, one should not forget Özgür Özel's remarks that the agreement made with the Victory Party (Zafer Partisi) alienated Kurdish votes.

News Source: 12punto