Spoke clearly on the Istanbul earthquake: 'The magnitude of the earthquake...'

In many scientific predictions regarding a potential earthquake in Istanbul, figures ranging between 7 and 7.6 were put forward. However, some geologists argued that the magnitude could be lower than these estimates. Most recently, Prof. Dr. Osman Bektaş pointed to new research data, emphasizing that the current risk is lower than previously thought.

"ISTANBUL'S FATE IS NOT 7.4"

Prof. Dr. Osman Bektaş explained that the fault lines in the Sea of Marmara would not produce a devastating earthquake with a single major rupture. Using the phrase "Istanbul's fate is not 7.4," Bektaş stated that the latest data obtained from research in the region reveals that rather than a single massive energy release, smaller segments could produce independent and relatively milder tremors.

"KUMBURGAZ FAULT IS NOT IN A LOCKED STRUCTURE"

Bektaş's assessments are based on scientific studies conducted by German and Japanese researchers in the Sea of Marmara between 2019 and 2023. According to experts, "creep" movements, which mean the fault is releasing energy by sliding, were observed in the Kumburgaz segment. Emphasizing that this situation contradicts the long-defended fully locked fault model, Bektaş stated that the risk of a massive earthquake has significantly decreased.

EARTHQUAKE MAGNITUDE MAY BE BELOW 7

Pointing out that energy release occurs at shallower levels regionally, Prof. Dr. Osman Bektaş said that this finding is also supported by observations made along the line extending from Tekirdağ to Kumburgaz. Bektaş said, "These international studies scientifically demonstrate that the Marmara cannot produce a single mega-rupture from end to end, and that the risk will be limited to independent and lower-scale tremors of smaller segments." He then indicated that the expected magnitude of an Istanbul earthquake would not be above 7, but below 7.

News Source: 12punto