Economic balances in Iran may shift following the lifting of sanctions

Expectations that the parties will reach a more comprehensive agreement following the memorandum of understanding reached between the US and Iran are bringing a large-scale thawing of the country's economy to the agenda. While the potential effects of lifting sanctions are being discussed, it is being said that the Revolutionary Guards, one of Iran's influential institutions, could gain a major financial advantage from this new process.

Having established a deep economic network for years in areas such as port management, telecommunications, and logistics, primarily in the energy and construction sectors, the Revolutionary Guards could further increase their economic power thanks to the oil exports and foreign investments that will rise again once sanctions are lifted, according to sources.

High-level Iranian officials providing information on the subject, while attributing the phrase "the true winner of the war" to this institution, point out that the Revolutionary Guards, which play a primary role in the state's survival, will be the institution that benefits most from the new business opportunities that will emerge.

On the other hand, the institution's financial statements are not shared with the public. Despite this, it is emphasized that its economic impact can reach billions of dollars thanks to its massive trade network, its share in oil revenues, and its effectiveness in major construction projects.

Another important point is that the Revolutionary Guards' inclusion on the terrorist organization list by Western countries is one of the main obstacles complicating Iran's return to the international finance and trade system. International investors are often forced to work with local partners due to Iranian law; this could push foreign companies to cooperate directly or indirectly with firms linked to the Revolutionary Guards. Especially for Western companies, this situation creates both political and legal risks.

The weight the institution holds in the Iranian economy is also reflected in official records. In particular, the Khatam al-Anbiya Construction Headquarters, which carries out engineering activities, signs off on hundreds of projects in a wide variety of sectors such as energy, infrastructure, automotive, tourism, communication, and logistics. This broad network of influence ensures that the Revolutionary Guards have a key approach to government policies in the country's development.

The Revolutionary Guards, which have increased their regional role since the 1979 Revolution and consolidated their political power from Khomeini to Khamenei, have further increased their power within the country with the accession of the new religious leader Mojtaba Khamenei. It is suggested that the institution's weight has increased with the recent wars and political changes.

Looking at recent developments, exemptions have been granted for some oil sanctions with the latest memorandum signed by US President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. It is stated that if the parties can reach a more comprehensive agreement in the coming period, a new economic fund of approximately 300 billion dollars could be made available for Iran's use.

According to experts, even if there is no comprehensive agreement and current sanctions remain in effect, the Revolutionary Guards will continue to maintain their control in the fields of oil and foreign trade thanks to their existing economic network and mechanisms for bypassing sanctions.

News Source: 12punto