Study: More than 11,000 people will die from disease in Gaza even if a ceasefire is declared

The London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine's Centre for Health in Humanitarian Crises and the US-based Johns Hopkins University Center for Humanitarian Health have published a report revealing how the situation in Gaza might change under three different scenarios.

Prepared based on scenarios where a ceasefire is declared, current attacks continue at the same level, and the intensity of attacks increases, the report presents projections on how public health in Gaza will change between February 7 and August 6, 2024.

EPIDEMIC DISEASES WILL INCREASE THE DEATH TOLL

The report estimates that in an environment where a ceasefire is declared in Gaza, 6,550 people will die due to the effects of the war, infectious or non-communicable diseases, and factors affecting maternal and newborn health. It projects that if the current situation continues, the death toll will rise to 58,260, and if the intensity of the attacks increases, the number of deaths will reach 74,290.

Stating that with the impact of epidemic diseases, 11,580 people are expected to die in Gaza in the next 6 months (until August) in a ceasefire environment, the report estimates that the death toll will reach 66,720 if the current situation continues, and 85,750 if the violence increases.

The report predicts that the highest number of deaths from epidemics will be caused by cholera, polio, measles, and meningococcal meningitis.

Emphasizing that infectious diseases will be the biggest factor causing deaths among Gazans in a ceasefire environment, the report notes that in the current situation or in an environment of increased violence, the contraction of infectious diseases by the wounded could lead to a large number of deaths.

CHILDREN WILL ACCOUNT FOR 34 PERCENT

It was noted that in the best-case scenario, the time it will take to improve water, health, nutrition, and housing conditions will also contribute to an increase in deaths. According to the report, children aged 0-15 will account for 34 percent of those who will die in the next 6 months, while 57 percent will be men. Furthermore, an increase in maternal, newborn, and stillbirth numbers is predicted in all scenarios.

News Source: AA