US election expert's warning on Trump: We must make contingency plans if he wins

Excitement is growing for the US Presidential election expected to take place in November. According to polls conducted in the US, there is almost no difference in the vote share between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.

Leading election forecaster Nate Silver says that as the presidential race continues to be neck-and-neck, Americans should make "contingency plans" in case of a potential Trump victory.

Speaking to The Guardian, Silver said, "One of the potential advantages of having a 50/50 forecast is that people should make their contingency plans now. That doesn't mean you need to [stockpile] ammunition and peanut butter, but it does mean: What is your strategy for protecting American institutions in the event of a second Trump term?"

Silver, whose election model correctly predicted the results of the 2008, 2012, and 2020 elections, said the outcome of the 2024 White House race is still "uncertain."

SWING STATES CLOSER TO HARRIS

According to Silver's 2024 model, Harris has a modest lead in the probability of winning the election and the popular vote. He also puts her probability of winning the swing state of Michigan at 63 percent and her chance of taking the critical state of Pennsylvania at 57 percent.

According to The Independent's poll tracker, with less than 50 days until the election, Harris holds a 2.9 percent lead over Trump in the average of national polls.

According to the report in Independent Türkçe, both campaigns will visit vital swing states this Saturday; vice presidential candidates Tim Walz and J.D. Vance will be in Pennsylvania, while Donald Trump will hold a rally in North Carolina.

News Source: 12punto