Zelenskyy's visit to Ankara: Can Turkey be the key to peace?

İlkcan Kemer - 12punto.com.tr

As the third year of the Russia-Ukraine war passes, critical developments are taking place on the front line and on the international stage. In an exclusive interview with journalist Okay Deprem, who is located in the Donbas region on the crisis line, we asked about the political dimensions of the war, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's visit to Turkey and his geopolitical role, the course of the war, and the possibility of peace.

 US and Russian delegations met in Riyadh with the goals of normalizing bilateral relations and ending the war in Ukraine. Zelenskyy, meanwhile, was in Turkey to meet with President Erdoğan…

Stating that Germany supports Zelenskyy's visit to Turkey, Deprem pointed to Turkey's geopolitical power and position, saying, "Positioning a country that has influence over Russia and strong relations in the negotiation process is a strategic choice. Turkey stands out as a country that has maintained, has been able to maintain, and continues to maintain full-fledged communication with Russia even under the worst conditions. Over these last three years, from bilateral meetings to gatherings on different platforms and organizations, Turkey-Russia relations have never really deteriorated, despite Turkey's certain military support for Ukraine. Far from deteriorating, they have even strengthened. Even on the issue of Syria, the two sides came face to face in a serious sense, but even that was overcome very smoothly. Because Turkey has provided very serious advantages to Russia despite the crises and sanctions it has faced. Leaving everything else aside, the fact that the only energy line currently going to Europe passes through Turkey means that Russia will not sacrifice Turkey in any way."

Journalist Deprem, while evaluating Zelenskyy's visit to Turkey as the primary reason for Turkey being in the middle while both sides have very different conflicting demands, expectations, and arguments, also referred to the March 2022 Istanbul talks and Turkey's mediation: "Zelenskyy's visit to Turkey must be an effort to persuade Russia in a way that slightly brings it closer to Ukrainian arguments. Although it later failed, possible ceasefire talks were held in Istanbul. Turkey is expected to exert influence on Russia at this point. Because, in the current new world configuration, no European region has the slightest prestige, credit, or validity of its word in the eyes of Russia."

WHERE IS EUROPE?
When we asked Okay Deprem about Europe's position in this process, he gave the following answer: "It is remarkable that Zelenskyy turned to Turkey, which is in a critical position geopolitically in the region, rather than Europe. Turkey is a country that is both close to Europe and at the center of multidimensional and complex regional dynamics. The fact that meetings for the resolution of the Ukraine crisis are held in Turkey rather than in Europe also shows that Europe has remained in the background in this process. Zelenskyy coming to Ankara instead of Paris shows that the process is being shaped independently of Europe."

Regarding the Riyadh meeting where Russian and US ministers met for the first time, Deprem commented: "It is no surprise that this meeting was held in Riyadh. In the last few decades, Saudi Arabia has become a more influential country in geopolitical, financial, logistical, and strategic terms, in addition to its power in the economy and energy sectors. While its relations with Russia are deepening, it has already had a close relationship with the US for many years. In this process, Saudi Arabia's accession to BRICS was also a remarkable development. If it hadn't been, another Gulf country could have hosted it. However, this was the first meeting and it will probably not be the last."

Stating that the meeting in Riyadh is an important indicator in reading and analyzing the current global order, Deprem commented on the fact that European countries and the Ukrainian administration were not invited as follows: "Both the US President and the Russian President clearly stated that they did not want to invite anyone from Europe and that there was no need for it. It was even stated that even Ukraine should not have been there at the very beginning of the process. While geopolitical balances are changing faster than ever, the Ukraine issue is being handled not only as a regional issue but as part of a global power struggle."

RUSSIAN ECONOMY GROWING DESPITE THE WAR

Journalist Deprem drew attention to the fact that despite the sanctions imposed by the West against Russia and the financial support given to Ukraine, Russia has survived and has not even slowed its growth rate even under war conditions:
"As someone who knows Russia, I can say that even under the worst conditions, Russia has continued to grow despite being subjected to heavy sanctions, perhaps in a way unprecedented in world history. Russia has grown by about 4% over the last three years. In fact, this growth rate has varied between 3% and 4% each year. That is, there has been at least 10% growth in total. Moreover, this happened despite the heavy burden of the war. Russia is waging a conventional war, and there are more than fifty countries supporting Ukraine against it. The entirety of Europe, the US, and some other countries have financed Ukraine."

Mentioning the influence of China and India in Russia's protection of its economy, Deprem continued:
"The biggest factor that saved Russia economically was China. China supported Russia with very large energy deals. While the energy Russia sold to Europe decreased, China's purchases increased exponentially. Chinese firms largely replaced the brands that withdrew from Europe, especially in the automotive sector. This helped Russia compensate for its losses. India also did not fully participate in the sanctions against Russia and continued its economic relations with Russia as a BRICS member. In addition to India, Iran, Gulf countries, North Korea, Belarus, and many African and Latin American countries also continued their cooperation with Russia. For this reason, although the West tried to isolate Russia, it was not left alone globally."

Reminding of the technological breakthroughs Russia has rapidly increased to survive and the military industry it uses in the war economy, Okay Deprem said, "Investments in heavy industry, production facilities, and military technology in Russia have increased at a great speed. The military industry was already one of the areas where Russia was strongest, and the war process has further strengthened this sector."

WHO IS THE WINNER?

Stating that US President Donald Trump and his team have clearly expressed that Ukraine is losing and are looking for ways to reach an agreement with Russia, Deprem said, "Russia seems to be on the winning side in economic, political, and military terms."

Underlining that the final outcome of the war depends on how the borders will be shaped, journalist Okay Deprem added that the whole world, including the US and Europe, accepts that Ukraine cannot return to its 2014 borders.

News Source: 12punto