Ahmet Ercan stated he expects two earthquakes and revealed the locations: 'It could be worse than August 17'
Prof. Dr. Ahmet Ercan drew attention to Istanbul's Küçükçekmece and Tekirdağ's Marmara Ereğlisi, stating that he expects two earthquakes. Ercan said, "Due to the high density of people and buildings in Istanbul, even if the earthquake is not very large, its impact could be greater than that of August 17."
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In his statement, Ercan expressed that he expects a magnitude 7-7.2 earthquake off the coast of Marmara Ereğlisi, noting that this would be the Tekirdağ earthquake, which would naturally affect the province and its districts.
Stating that Istanbul unfortunately cannot support such a high density of buildings and people, Ercan argued that the situation in Istanbul is not urban transformation but structural transformation, that bank loans are designed to save 10-15 families, and that as a result, only contractors profit.
"I EXPECT TWO EARTHQUAKES"
Stating that he has not changed his rhetoric since the 1999 earthquake, Ercan said, "We know the expected earthquake, but we are not certain about the timing. I expect two earthquakes. One is 25 kilometers south of Küçükçekmece at a depth of 7 kilometers, with a magnitude between 6.4 and 6.7. The potential earthquake will rupture in an east-west direction. Roughly, it will rupture from Kınalıada-Sivriada to Küçükçekmece," he said.
"ITS IMPACT COULD BE GREATER THAN AUGUST 17"
Expressing his inability to understand how people are encouraged to move to Istanbul while an earthquake is expected, Ercan said, "I am not saying Istanbul should be evacuated.
I am saying that settlement should not be encouraged. This situation could lead us toward unexpected events.
There was a magnitude 7.1 earthquake in Japan. We see that there are no deaths or injuries. If it happened in Turkey, it would cause a catastrophe," he said.
Pointing out that the other earthquake branch is the Tekirdağ branch, Ercan said, "That will also occur off the coast of Marmara Ereğlisi. I expect its depth to be between 7 and 10 kilometers. It will be close to Tekirdağ. The area it will rupture is from Büyükçekmece to the Gulf of Saros," he said.
Drawing attention to the high density of people and buildings in Istanbul, Ercan stated, "Even if the earthquake is not very large, its impact could be greater than that of August 17."