Alarming statement from Prof. Dr. Naci Görür

The earthquake in Gemlik has brought the potential Istanbul earthquake back to the agenda. Stating that the earthquake risk is higher than ever, Prof. Naci Görür said, "This is now a truly very high probability. Even when you flip a coin, you have a 50% chance. 47% is a truly significant figure."

Identifying the districts with the highest earthquake risk in a potential Istanbul earthquake, Prof. Dr. Naci Görür stated the following:

There is serious research conducted on the recurrence period of this earthquake. One of these is a study carried out by a researcher from the USA. This was published in international journals. According to their findings, it was stated that after the '99 earthquakes, the probability of an earthquake greater than magnitude 7 occurring in the Marmara region was 64%.

A few months ago, this study was revised, and we saw that our probability of expecting an earthquake was expressed as 47%. Now, this is a truly very high probability. Even when you flip a coin, you have a 50% chance. 47% is a truly significant figure. This shows that there is no situation in terms of time that will keep us comfortable or calm regarding earthquakes. An earthquake could occur in Istanbul at any moment.

Which are the most dangerous districts in Istanbul?

There are earthquake mapping studies conducted in Istanbul. A generalization can be made as follows: The European Side of Istanbul is much more at risk in terms of earthquakes compared to the Asian Side. The main reason for this is the characteristics of the soil on the European side. Both the soil here is weak, and when earthquake waves enter this soil, the dynamic behavior of the soil is more destructive and more devastating.

The Asian Side is less risky than the European Side

The intensity of the earthquake is also relatively higher on the European side and relatively lower on the Asian Side. Especially on the European Side, in the coastal sections—in the band area extending 10 meters inland from the coast—the intensity of the earthquake reaches 9. This is a high intensity. In other words, it is an earthquake intensity that would destroy even the most durable, well-constructed buildings. Therefore, areas located especially on the European Side, that is, the area from Zeytinburnu and the Golden Horn up to the Silivri region (Büyükçekmece, Küçükçekmece surroundings and their areas close to the sea), are places that will be more seriously affected in an earthquake.