Area Research President Murat Karan speaks to 12punto: 'İYİ Party's local election decision will cause losses for CHP'

CHP Chairman Özgür Özel's visit to the İYİ Party Headquarters was followed by İYİ Party Chairwoman Meral Akşener pointing to the General Administrative Board (GİK) for a decision on cooperation.

While the GİK decided "no" to cooperation, Party Spokesperson and Ankara Deputy Kürşad Zorlu announced that they would participate in the elections "free and independent."

Akşener, in her first group meeting after the decision, compared the cooperation to "mandate and tutelage" and made harsh statements.

Area Research President Murat Karan answered 12punto's questions regarding the decision against cooperation and the İYİ Party's move to field candidates in all 81 provinces.

''IT WILL CAUSE A LOSS''

The İYİ Party announced it will enter the local elections without an alliance. Will this cause the CHP to lose the municipalities it currently holds?

"One needs to look at it regionally. The latest data is from the last parliamentary elections. When we look at it based on the last parliamentary elections, it will cause a loss for the CHP in a few municipalities, especially at the district level. But in municipal elections, candidates are very important. Similarly, a new setup is established in each electoral district with mayoral candidates who can consolidate the votes of opposition voters and even attract votes from the base of the People's Alliance. There will be a race between the rivals."

''IT IS POSSIBLE BUT...''

Can the İYİ Party emerge profitable from this decision, are there provinces it can win?

In the last parliamentary elections, there are no provinces where the İYİ Party came in first or second. They are in third and fourth place in many provinces and districts. When we look at it statistically, it does not seem very possible in terms of voter potential. If they go with a popular mayoral candidate who is loved in the region, voters change their voting behavior significantly in local elections. It is possible, but only with strong candidates."

''EDUCATED OPPOSITION VOTERS MANAGE THE MATH THEMSELVES''

Do you think voters in Istanbul and Ankara specifically might form an alliance at the ballot box?

Metropolitan voters, especially educated opposition voters, already manage this math themselves. They narrow it down to the 2 candidates who can win and cast strategic votes. Here, they gather under the banner of the strongest rival against the party and candidate they want to see lose, not just the candidate they want to see win. Therefore, especially in metropolitan elections, starting with Istanbul and Ankara, it is possible for voters to move beyond their partisan biases, narrow the field down to 2 candidates, and vote for the strong rival against the one they want to see lose, rather than just the one they want to win."

''THE SUCCESS RATING OF THE 11 METROPOLITAN MAYORS IS HIGH''

Can we say that the People's Alliance is heading toward an easy election due to the disarray of the opposition?

We cannot say that because in the 11 metropolitan cities where 60% of the voters currently live, the candidates of the Nation Alliance in the previous 2019 elections were elected as mayors. The vast majority of these mayors received positive feedback from citizens throughout their 5-year terms of service. Public opinion polls show us this. Therefore, the mayoral candidates that the People's Alliance will field against the current metropolitan mayors are starting at a disadvantage. Because the success perception and rating of these 11 metropolitan mayors are high."

''THIS PROPAGANDA DOES NOT WORK IN LOCAL ELECTIONS''

Will Özgür Özel's statements about Selahattin Demirtaş and the HDP create a barrier with People's Alliance voters?

It will not. The People's Alliance tried to create this barrier in 2019 as well. But voters were not affected by the HDP's implicit support by not fielding candidates in the 2019 elections. It led to the Nation Alliance winning 11 metropolitan cities. In this election, one should not perceive the election as a general election. Because this propaganda works in general elections. The People's Alliance used HDP support very well in the general election and won the presidential elections. But it appears this propaganda does not work in local elections. I am of the opinion that voters will determine their votes by narrowing it down to the candidate and making a choice between 2 candidates, and because the current mayors are in office and their success perception is relatively high among voters in their own cities, this propaganda will not work."