‘Article 5’ warning amid World War risk... Retired Rear Admiral Cem Gürdeniz, the father of the ‘Blue Homeland’ doctrine: ‘Turkey must not fall into the trap’

Burak DEMİRBAŞ-12punto.com.tr /EXCLUSIVE

Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, during a television program he attended, “There is a risk of a Third World War. The world should take the risk of a Third World War seriously. We are taking it seriously." he stated. 

Following Minister Fidan’s remarks, the risk of a Third World War has returned to the agenda. 

Evaluating the issue for 12punto, Retired Rear Admiral Cem Gürdeniz, Noting that wars are no longer declared in the modern era, he stated the following: ‘IN REALITY, THE THIRD WORLD WAR IS CONTINUING THROUGH PROXY AND HYBRID WARS’

“In reality, the dynamics we are witnessing today are the continuing dynamics of the First World War. That is to say, it is a continuation of the geopolitical struggle between Anglo-Saxon maritime powers and continental powers seeking access to the sea. The concept of a 'World War' began to be used with the First World War. It was a concept that emerged before the UN was established, that is, before war was outlawed. Today, wars are not declared; the UN Charter prohibits it. The concept of war is only used under the pretext of self-defense. In the nuclear age, the concept of a World War is already extremely complex. Because if one were to attempt to use nuclear firepower within the military psychology of the Second World War, there would be no world left. The Cold War was an interim period. Today, we are living in a new era that began with the end of that Cold War interim. In reality, the Third World War is continuing in various dimensions through proxy wars and hybrid wars. The Anglo-Saxon hegemony, which completed the First and Second World Wars and the Cold War with victory, does not want a rival hegemonic candidate emerging from the continent to the sea. In 1914, Kaiser Wilhelm II emerged, and the US and Britain, along with their allies, took his head and reshaped the world at the Paris Conference. Thanks to Atatürk, Turkey was the only one to object, and it was able to establish the Republic through the War of Independence. We are one of the rare countries in Europe that has maintained its existence for 100 years without fighting. The Second World War continued with Hitler where the Kaiser left off. The Anglo-Saxons used the Soviets to defeat Hitler. Russia made them pay the bill for the 25 million Russian citizens sacrificed by opening a sphere of influence in Central and Eastern Europe, and thus the geopolitical balance of the Cold War was formed. This balance continued until 1989.”

‘THE BIGGEST MISTAKE OF THE US NEOCONS…’

The Anglo-Saxons, and especially the American neoconservative war hawks, assessed that the reckoning of the First World War ended in 1989 and moved on to a new project for the US. Once they dismantled the Soviets without firing a single shot, they said, 'The seas were already mine; now I want all the lands.' Currently, in the starting dynamics of the Second World War, the American neocons are acting with the same geopolitical ambition as Hitler, Mussolini, and the Emperor of Japan. Therefore, we can say that the neocons' biggest move began on September 11, 2001. The Greater Middle East and North Africa project, the borderless expansion of NATO, the complete transformation of the Adriatic Sea into a NATO sea following the breakup of Yugoslavia, and the amendment of the Japanese Constitution to allow for rearmament are examples of this period. The US neocons made their biggest mistake during this period by failing to see the reflection of China's economic growth on its naval power. China emerged from the continent to the sea. It did something similar to what Germany did in the First and Second World Wars, and what Japan did before the Second World War, starting in 1931.”

‘THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR IS A CONTINUATION OF THE HYBRID THIRD WORLD WAR’

Gürdeniz,

continued his remarks by emphasizing that the current conflict is not merely a regional dispute but part of a larger global power struggle. Russia-Ukraine War and Taiwanin his assessment, where he also reported on developments in he continued his words as follows:

"That is why, after the great losses suffered in the failed adventures in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, and Syria following 9/11, driven by American geopolitical ambition and the Global War on Terror paradigm, the US urgently announced in 2018 that it had entered an era of Great Power Competition. However, it was too late. Russia and China realized the geopolitical aggression taking place and moved to defense and counter-attack. Crises in Crimea, the South China Sea, the East China Sea, Taiwan, Ukraine, etc., followed one after another. Therefore, in my opinion, the Third World War began after 9/11. But let me repeat, the ones starting the war this time are not the expansionism of a Kaiser or Hitler, but the neocons under the influence of Zionist geopolitics. Today, what is happening in Ukraine, Taiwan, the South China Sea, the Eastern Mediterranean, and the Red Sea is a continuation of the hybrid Third World War." 

NEW FRONTS IN THE WAR

In this process, the US faced a major fait accompli by Israel with the events in Gaza on October 7, 2023, and accelerated its loss of energy. This loss of energy will certainly be exploited by Russia and China. Therefore, I definitely expect a new front. I have an article I wrote months ago titled, 'Is the Philippines the new Ukraine?' The main reason for the Philippines, which is a kind of colony of the US, to pursue a highly provocative policy against China is likely to distract China and cause it to lose power through cheap Filipino blood. I believe that the US will use its secure position between two oceans to the fullest by encouraging wars through its proxies under all circumstances." 

'TURKEY HAS BEEN SHOWING RESISTANCE SINCE THE FETÖ UPRISING'

Therefore, Russia, China, North Korea, Iran, and even Turkey—partially since the FETÖ uprising—are essentially resisting the U.S. thesis that emerged after 9/11, which essentially says, 'I want the whole world.' This is growing through the SCO, BRICS, and even the recent European Parliament elections. Putin's rapprochement with North Korea and subsequent visit to Vietnam, as well as Indian Prime Minister Modi's visit to Moscow, are all very significant developments. 

WHY WERE AIRCRAFT CARRIERS WITHDRAWN TO THE MEDITERRANEAN?

Drawing attention to the withdrawal of U.S. aircraft carriers from the Pacific to the Mediterranean, Gürdeniz stated that the conflict between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah could escalate at any moment. 

Gürdeniz continued as follows:

"Let me repeat, the Anglo-Saxon world is in decline across political, economic, and military dimensions. One of the biggest factors in this is the Gaza trap into which Israel has drawn the U.S. The U.S. is diverting a massive amount of its energy there. So much so that an aircraft carrier strike group, which is rarely deployed from the Pacific while crises in the Philippines and Taiwan are ongoing, can suddenly be withdrawn to the Mediterranean. Why? Because the conflict between Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah could escalate at any moment. The Houthis' attacks on maritime trade in the Red Sea and the Eastern Mediterranean could change in range and scope." 

Therefore, we can say this: it is very difficult to make a generalization about a Third World War today in the context of the first and second world wars. This is because the UN Charter already prohibits the declaration of war. Today, no country will come forward and say 'I have started the Third World War,' but security operations under Article 51 of the UN Charter or proxy wars through non-state actors will continue.

'TURKEY JOINED NATO BUT...'

Evaluating Turkey-Russia relations and Putin's NATO rhetoric, Gürdeniz said, "Russia launched a security operation in Ukraine on February 24, 2022, to counter NATO expansion and protect Russian-speaking Ukrainians in the Donbas region. This was an inevitable move of Russian geopolitics. Ukraine, which lies on the path of advancement for both Napoleon and Hitler, could not be allowed to become the forward bastion of Anglo-Saxon geopolitics, whose primary goal is the fragmentation of Russia. Thanks to the Montreux Convention, Turkey was able to maintain its active neutrality in this war, where Ukraine is targeted to become cheap blood for American geopolitical goals. This is very important. It did not join the sanctions. On the other hand, even though we are within different security architectures, Turkey has established a kind of strategic partnership with Russia. For this reason, Russia would never want to lose Turkey, through which 60 percent of its foreign trade and a large portion of its oil exports pass; nor would Turkey want to lose Russia, which it uses as a balancing element against aggressive Anglo-Saxon policies from both an economic and geopolitical perspective. Neither state will disrupt an environment where relations have developed so much since the end of the Cold War. The Turkey and Russia of the 21st century will not fall into the trap that the Romanov and Ottoman dynasties fell into. The Anglo-Saxon-led West contributed to the weakening of both states by encouraging the Ottoman Empire and Russia to fight for three centuries. Although Turkey joined NATO in 1952 with the American infatuation of the CHP and DP, it partially continues to preserve the spirit of the letter Mustafa Kemal wrote to Lenin on January 22, 1922. Turkey joined NATO, but it did not conduct a single NATO exercise in the Black Sea. It did not conduct a single NATO exercise on its eastern border. In Anglo-Saxon propaganda, the weakest link regarding Turkey continues to be the rhetoric that 'Turks and Russians have fought 13 times.' However, no one reminds us that the Germans and the French fought 3 times and the Germans entered Paris 3 times, or that the British and the French fought dozens of times in various conflicts over 300 years until 1805. Friendships and enmities are fleeting; what matters are geopolitical interests." he said.

'TURKEY IS A COUNTRY THAT SHOULD BE IN THE AXIS OF RESISTANCE'

Commenting on Turkey's position, Gürdeniz continued his remarks as follows:

I look at it this way: Who is the current rival to Turkish geopolitics? Anglo-Saxon geopolitics. It wants Cyprus, it says 'abandon Montreux.' It wants a puppet Kurdish state in our Southeast, Iraq, and Syria that has access to the sea. It wants our Blue Homeland. What are we going to discuss? Turkey is a country that should be on the axis of resistance. 

'WHAT THE US NEEDS TO DO...'

The US always thinks of itself this way: 'I am the safest state in the world between two oceans. I took over the Pax Britannica, but I am much stronger than they were. Pax Britannica lasted 150 years; I will live forever.' Using the security provided by the oceans, the US claimed, 'I will rule the whole world.' However, instead of ruling, it brought instability, blood, and tears everywhere it went. The only areas where it was successful were the expansion of NATO and the fragmentation of Yugoslavia in the Adriatic. Today, the US is a declining hegemon under a heavy debt burden. Its problem is its refusal to accept a multipolar world order. Every empire needs war to save its economy. That is what the US is doing. It is instigating proxy wars to batter Russia and China and to boost its own economy through the war industry. It is positioning itself for the post-Pax Americana era. 

The EU and NATO remain the US's most trusted bastions. However, the recent elections in the European Parliament show that the US is eroding even there. What the US needs to do is accept the multipolar world order and return to the Cold War concept of peaceful coexistence (co-existence pacifique). 

'THE DANGER OF ARTICLE 5'

Gürdeniz noted that because Turkey is a NATO member, in the event of a possible Third World War, the US Article 5 emphasizing that a fait accompli could be forced, he continued his remarks as follows: 

"The Foreign Minister's words, 'There is a risk of a Third World War. The world should take the risk of a Third World War seriously. We are taking it seriously,' may have been said in this context to prepare the public for a crisis period that could have increasing effects on Turkey in every aspect. The greatest threat to Turkey, as a NATO member, could be a fait accompli by the US to invoke Article 5. Turkey must be prepared for this situation. The US and NATO, which invoked Article 5 for themselves in the war on terror after 9/11, did not accept Turkey's proposal to invoke Article 5 for its fight against the PKK at subsequent NATO summits. Therefore, Turkey must never, ever fall into the trap of invoking Article 5 for the sake of US interests. Today, there is no direct geopolitical threat to Turkey from Russia, Iran, or China. However, Anglo-Saxon geopolitics is our rival."

WARNING ON 'DRILLING' FOR THE EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN AND THE AEGEAN

Cem Gürdeniz, in his article on Veryansıntv titled, "The dynamics of the World War that have continued since 1914" in the section, "Lessons for Turkey" in the section, he called for halting the decline that began after 2020 in the Blue Homeland and noted the following:

"Turkey must remain actively neutral during this era of great power competition by utilizing the geopolitical specific weight of its extraordinary geography, and it must take a stance that serves its own geopolitical interests. It should act without being bound to any military alliance or military commitment system. It must not allow NATO to create a Turkish-Russian crisis through faits accomplis in the Black Sea, nor should it allow the Montreux regime to be harmed. It must avoid provocations that would drag Turkey and Iran into a conflict environment, and it must be able to say 'stop' to the loosening or ignoring of our vital interests in the Eastern Mediterranean, the Aegean, and the TRNC. It must act with the knowledge that imperialism's goal and efforts to establish an independent puppet Kurdish state with access to the sea in our south will never end, and it should cooperate with the Assad regime in Syria as soon as possible. In this new multipolar era where the global economic system is focusing on Asia, we must not be late for BRICS membership, and efforts to integrate Turkish-patented transport corridors such as the Middle Corridor and the Development Road with Asian and European economies must be increased in parallel with our geopolitical interests. The decline process that began after 2020 in the Blue Homeland, the Eastern Mediterranean, and the Aegean must be stopped, and our seismic and drilling activities must continue on behalf of the TRNC and Turkey."

'OUR NATO MEMBERSHIP HAS TURNED INTO OUR GREATEST SECURITY RISK'

Evaluating regional tensions and the influence of the US, particularly in the Mediterranean and the Red Sea, Gürdeniz stated in a post on X the following:

"The US aircraft carrier Eisenhower is returning to its main base in Norfolk after a record-breaking seven-month deployment in the Red Sea and Mediterranean under the responsibility of CENTCOM. It has been replaced by the USS Theodore Roosevelt, which is still under the command of the Indo-Pacific Command. Deploying from the Pacific to the Mediterranean is not a standard practice. In a conjuncture where an Israel-Hezbollah conflict could break out at any moment and Houthi maritime attacks are intensifying in the Red Sea and even the Mediterranean, the risks of a 100,000-ton aircraft carrier entering a narrow sea area like the Mediterranean are high. This means the situation is of that degree of priority. The inventory that Russia, China, and Iran could provide to the Houthis and Hezbollah could bring them to a position to balance the firepower of the West, similar to the ATACMS and F-16 munitions that strike inside Russia. After the attacks in Crimea and Dagestan, anything can happen on the chessboard at any moment. Turkey must remain outside of this risky and dangerous escalation under all circumstances. Ankara must act intelligently enough not to be drawn into faits accomplis through the trap of NATO's Article 5. Because the US war lobby continues to provoke without boundaries. For the US, which feels safe between two oceans, the rest of the world is just a detail. What does the NATO Secretary General say? 'They want to see the US fail. They want to see NATO fail. If they succeed in Ukraine, it will make us more vulnerable and the world more dangerous.' On the contrary, the US is driving more Ukrainians to war to succeed. Together with NATO, the US is not trying to extinguish the fire, but to make it grow even larger. Our NATO membership has now turned into our greatest security risk."