Cem Gürdeniz: Warning of a 'multidimensional geopolitical vise' for Turkey after the NATO Summit

In an assessment shared on his social media account, Gürdeniz stated that the developments following the NATO Summit should not be treated as independent of one another. Expressing that a new geopolitical landscape has emerged that requires careful monitoring, particularly regarding domestic stability and the Eastern Mediterranean, Gürdeniz argued that the US has taken steps concerning Turkey's geopolitical sensitivities immediately following the summit.

Energy and infrastructure projects in the Eastern Mediterranean took center stage in Gürdeniz's assessment. The retired admiral noted that the "Eastern Mediterranean Gateway Act," which passed the US House Foreign Affairs Committee on July 23, treats the region as the strategic gateway of the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) to Europe.

Arguing that the GSI subsea electricity interconnection project is also being placed within this same geopolitical architecture, Gürdeniz noted that the project, which includes Israel, Greece, and the GCA, carries direct importance for Turkish maritime jurisdiction areas and the "Blue Homeland."

Attention drawn to the GSI project

Cem Gürdeniz also included in his assessment the fact that the French infrastructure investment firm Meridiam joined the GSI project on August 5 by acquiring a 66 percent majority stake.

Suggesting that this development could increase pressure on Turkey, Gürdeniz argued that the move on August 11 by a group led by US Congress members Brad Schneider and Gus Bilirakis, who petitioned US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and US International Development Finance Corporation CEO Ben Black to have the GSI project prioritized by the US, is part of the same chain.

According to retired Admiral Cem Gürdeniz, these developments indicate that increasing political, economic, and institutional power is being placed behind projects that have struggled to advance due to Turkey's objections regarding its continental shelf in the Eastern Mediterranean.

Emphasis on 'no statement' regarding ATACMS claim

The war in Ukraine also featured as an important topic in Gürdeniz's assessment.

Stating that a process regarding the permanent transfer of old US-origin weapons in Turkey's inventory, including systems such as ATACMS missiles, to Ukraine has come to the agenda via a notification made by the US Department of State to Congress on August 6, Gürdeniz expressed that the issue is sensitive in terms of Turkey's Black Sea-Russia balance.

Retired Admiral Gürdeniz claimed that there are statements in US records suggesting the process was initiated by the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and argued that it is noteworthy that no official statement has yet been made by Turkey on the matter.

A different interpretation of the agreement in Mecca

The retired admiral stated that the agreement signed in Mecca on August 7 between Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan should also be evaluated separately in terms of regional power balances.

Saying that the agreement was presented by media close to the government as a "Sunni front" against Israel, Gürdeniz claimed that some members of Congress in the US evaluated the development in the context of isolating and containing Iran.

Stating that the fact that Egypt and Iran remain outside this structure will strengthen this perception, Gürdeniz also drew attention to the timing of the agreement. Gürdeniz recalled that on May 25, 2026, Donald Trump requested that six regional countries, including Turkey, normalize relations with Israel and join the Abraham Accords.

'Framework law' and the US approach to Syria

Another topic in Gürdeniz's assessment was the "framework law" that passed the Turkish Grand National Assembly (TBMM) on August 10.

Arguing that the law could have direct consequences for Turkey's unitary state structure and national integrity, Gürdeniz claimed that pro-US and pro-EU circles, as well as segments supporting the goal of a "Greater Kurdistan," welcomed the regulation.

Stating that the regulation is perceived by a segment of the public as the beginning of an amnesty process for the PKK, Gürdeniz alleged that similar demands for legal regulations have also come from some FETÖ circles.

Gürdeniz also argued that the US Ambassador to Ankara, Tom Barrack, treats the Kurdish issue in Turkey and the SDF/YPG issue in Syria as parts of a broader regional political settlement.

Stating that Barrack describes the integration of Kurds into the central state structure in Syria through citizenship, cultural rights, and political participation, Gürdeniz claimed that this approach parallels the disarmament and legal integration process being conducted in Turkey.

'American intervention chain is becoming institutionalized'

Stating that the US role in the Eastern Mediterranean has expanded through different mechanisms in recent years, Gürdeniz drew attention to the US observer status in the East Mediterranean Gas Forum, which was established in 2019 and from which Turkey is excluded, the Greece-GCA-Israel 3+1 Mediterranean Maritime Security mechanism, and the Eastern Mediterranean Energy Center initiative, which he stated was announced on June 8, 2026.

He argued that with the addition of the Eastern Mediterranean Gateway Act, IMEC, and the GSI-DFC connection to these developments, an American intervention chain that is growing and becoming institutionalized has formed regarding Turkey's "Blue Homeland" sensitivities.

According to Gürdeniz, the strategy of the US and Greece is to involve as many powerful states, companies, and capital groups as possible in energy and infrastructure projects in areas disputed with Turkey.

Stating that this situation could change the nature of a future dispute between Turkey and Greece or the GCA, Gürdeniz expressed that a research or cable-laying activity by Turkey off the coasts of Kasos and Karpathos could not be evaluated merely as an Ankara-Athens or Ankara-GCA dispute.

Gürdeniz argued that in such a situation, the US Congress, French capital, EU energy security, US strategic interests, IMEC, and Western energy companies could stand against Turkey.

'The approach of different actors in Washington should not be overlooked'

Arguing that high expectations regarding the US and Trump have formed in both the government and opposition fronts in Turkey following the NATO Summit, Gürdeniz said that the approach of different power centers in Washington toward Turkey must be evaluated simultaneously.

Stating that despite Trump's positive statements toward the Turkish leadership, the Pentagon, CENTCOM, Congress, and the American security bureaucracy act in line with their own strategic interests, Gürdeniz expressed that the closeness at the leader level between Washington and Ankara should not overshadow the reality of the strengthening of the Greece-GCA-Israel axis in the Eastern Mediterranean.

'Turkey is pregnant with a very difficult period'

At the end of his assessment, Gürdeniz argued that Turkey is under multidimensional geopolitical pressure via the Black Sea, the Aegean, the Mediterranean, the Levant, and the Persian Gulf following the NATO Summit.

Suggesting that if the fragmentation on the domestic front and financial problems continue, the scope and intensity of this pressure will increase, Gürdeniz warned that every concession made to the US could pave the way for new geopolitical concessions.

Gürdeniz concluded his assessment by stating that Turkey has entered a "very difficult period," arguing that the country's most important strength is the lessons learned from difficult periods experienced in the past and the historical resilience of society.

When we put the developments following the NATO Summit side by side, a new geopolitical landscape emerges that requires careful monitoring for Turkey, especially regarding domestic stability and the Eastern Mediterranean. Immediately after the summit, the US's [steps] on Turkey's geopolitical sensitivities...

— Cem GÜRDENİZ (@cemgurdeniznet) August 13, 2026