Earthquake expert Prof. Dr. Şükrü Ersoy warns those regions: There is a potential for a major earthquake

Earthquake expert Prof. Dr. Şükrü Ersoy spoke about the series of recent earthquakes. Ersoy evaluated earthquakes with a magnitude of 4 and above during a broadcast on CNN Türk. 

Providing information regarding the worst-case scenario for a possible Marmara earthquake, Ersoy made important assessments. 

"While we are expecting an earthquake in the north, earthquakes may also occur on the southern branches," said Ersoy, warning these two regions by adding, "There has not been a major earthquake in Western Anatolia and the Aegean Region since 1970. I cannot help but emphasize the potential for a major earthquake there as well."

Here are the statements of Prof. Dr. Şükrü Ersoy:

“We have daily earthquake activity. It can be felt every two days. In other words, an earthquake above 4 can occur in any of our regions. It seems to have increased somewhat. Since February 6, the number of earthquakes that should have occurred in 3 years has occurred in 10 months. This is a major increase.

The formation story of every earthquake report is different. There was one near Korkuteli in Antalya and one off the coast of Alanya. This is not an earthquake occurring on our land, on the Anatolian continent. These two earthquakes are at a depth of 95-100 km. We do not have a crust that would break that deep. So what is it? This is occurring within the solid mass of the African plate subducting under Anatolia within the Mediterranean.

When an earthquake occurs as a result of this subduction, the epicenter corresponds to us. We experience this in Datça, Muğla, and around Antalya. These are not earthquakes on actual Anatolian soil. Earthquakes in Balıkesir and other places in Marmara should be interpreted differently. These are earthquakes that occur on our soil. Of course, we are an earthquake zone, but the mechanisms that create these earthquakes on a small scale are different from each other.

Triggering areas can be neighboring areas. It is not possible for the earthquake in Hatay to trigger the earthquake in İzmir.

IS THERE AN EARTHQUAKE WITH THE POTENTIAL TO TRIGGER OTHERS?

We are expecting an earthquake in Marmara in the near future. This is a triggering effect of '99; the two earthquakes in 1999 loaded stress into the Sea of Marmara. As a result of the stress, the time had already expired in the Sea of Marmara, and it brought it forward a bit.

Recently, an earthquake occurred off the coast of Avşa with a magnitude above 4. Earthquakes in this region are different and can be deceptive. While we are expecting an earthquake in the north, earthquakes may also occur on the southern branches.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR EARTHQUAKE IN WESTERN ANATOLIA AND THE AEGEAN

If we are talking about Marmara, there is no chance for the earthquakes here to be triggered by others. This is just an indication of how active the Marmara Region is. There has not been a major earthquake in Western Anatolia and the Aegean Region since 1970. I cannot help but emphasize the potential for a major earthquake there as well.

Since the Marmara Region is a candidate for major destruction, we need to talk about it more. If we come to the Düzce Earthquake following the two major earthquakes, the first earthquake was 7.4 in magnitude. It caused great destruction. More than 17 thousand of our citizens lost their lives. We said let this be a milestone, and we said two things: There are new stresses at both ends of the earthquake. One is inside the Sea of Marmara, and the other is the section towards Düzce. An earthquake occurred there on November 12, and when we look at the traces of that earthquake on the field, it is as if the August 17 earthquake and the November 12 earthquake were going to happen at the same time.

The place where the 1999 earthquakes occurred, the fault zone passing through Sapanca, broke. These two earthquakes, which were repeated 3 months apart, could actually have appeared as a single earthquake. The character of the North Anatolian fault in this region can have twin earthquakes within 1 year. There were twin earthquakes in 1766. There were twin earthquakes in 1999. If the Kocaeli earthquake and the Düzce earthquake had happened together, we might have had to talk about a slightly different balance sheet instead of 17 thousand lives lost. Perhaps we would have been talking about a 7.8 magnitude earthquake.

WE CAN EXPECT A 7.5 MAGNITUDE EARTHQUAKE

We need to consider the worst-case scenario. The magnitude of an earthquake that could occur on the North Anatolian fault in the Sea of Marmara is considered to be 7.5. There are similar earthquakes in historical processes. The 1766 earthquakes were quite high. We can expect a 7.5 magnitude earthquake.

Marmara is not just Istanbul; this is a region where an important part of Turkey, close to 30 million people, lives. There are 5 million independent units in Istanbul alone. The number of risky buildings is around 300 thousand. There is a dire picture ahead of us.

The greatest damage will be in the coastal regions. Population density is very high on the coasts. As you go north, this will of course decrease. In sturdy buildings, there may be a situation where nothing happens.

We have excavated the entire Marmara and seen that there are traces of a Tsunami. There is also evidence within historical processes. Most are even in the records. There have been around 35 major Tsunamis in the last 3 thousand years. Even 1 meter is a deadly depth. When it enters 100 meters inland from the coast and retreats, it can create great destruction. These scenarios have already been created.