Earthquake risk of the Marmara fault: Expert reveals alarming location

AFAD General Director of Earthquake and Risk Reduction Prof. Dr. Orhan Tatar made statements at the Marmara Municipalities Union meeting in Bursa.

Stating that he still feels the pain of the Kahramanmaraş-centered earthquakes that occurred on February 6 last year, Prof. Dr. Orhan Tatar said, "When I start talking about February 6, I get a lump in my throat and my eyes well up with tears. I feel a lot of pain in my heart. I served at the AFAD Disaster Coordination Center for 77 days. With that adrenaline, I tried to rush to many things without sleep. I wish we hadn't lost even a single life. February 6 truly did not forgive any mistakes. Therefore, 85 million people need to sit down and think about where we went wrong. For us, August 17 was actually a milestone, but we saw on February 6 that it was not a milestone after all."

"MARMARA FAULT HAS BEEN ACCUMULATING ENERGY FOR 250 YEARS"

Stating that the fault located in the Sea of Marmara has been accumulating energy for approximately 250 years and could produce an earthquake reaching 7.8 in magnitude if it breaks, Tatar said, "The area between the 1999 İzmit Earthquake and the 1912 Mürefte (Şarköy) earthquakes has not yet broken. Whether it breaks all at once or in several pieces, it doesn't matter. In the end, it has accumulated energy and will break one day. It accumulates 2.5 centimeters of energy every year, moving 2.5 centimeters westward every year. As soon as the elastic limit of this fault is exhausted, it will break," he said.

In his speech, Tatar also said the following:

"When we look here, there is a 250-year accumulation. There has been a displacement of between 6 and 7 meters to date. If you recall, on August 17, the bending of the railway tracks happened this way. If you ask what magnitude of earthquake this corresponds to, it could produce an earthquake ranging from 7.2 up to 7.8, depending on the mechanism of the rupture."

"BURSA IS ONE OF THE PLACES I AM MOST CONCERNED ABOUT"

Reminding that there are also active faults in the Southern Marmara region, Tatar said, "There are not only active faults within the Marmara. There are also active faults in the south of the Marmara. While we are focused on the Marmara Earthquake, we could face another earthquake one day. I don't want to scare Mayor Mustafa, but Bursa is one of the places I am most concerned about. The 1855 Bursa earthquake was an earthquake caused by the Uluabat fault."