‘El Nino Cold’ to hit Turkey this winter: Date given, when will the first snow fall?

According to meteorology experts, the past autumn and winter period stood out as the driest period for Turkey in the last 60 years. Although spring was rainy, the subsequent summer months were again hot and dry.

According to information compiled by TRT Haber; the world is under the influence of the El Nino weather pattern. Dr. Okan Bozyurt, a faculty member at the Department of Geography at Afyon Kocatepe University's Faculty of Science and Letters and a climatologist, explained what the meteorological data says to TRT Haber.

Stating that Turkey receives abundant precipitation in years when El Nino is effective, Bozyurt said, “In some El Nino years, it has been very rainy but mild. In other El Nino years, we see that it is again very rainy but cold.”

Commenting on what this year's models show for Turkey, Bozyurt said:

“This year, especially the autumn and winter seasons look like they will be very rainy and cold. Especially starting from November. Now, we have a short dry period ahead of us until the middle of October. I believe that a new rainy system will enter our country after the middle of October.”

OCTOBER WILL BE VERY RAINY

Stating that he expects more rainfall in October, Bozyurt drew attention to the 15th-20th of the month:

“The system that will come via the Balkans looks like it will be cold and rainy. In this case, I expect sleet and snowfall in the higher parts of the country's interior. I am expecting another significant system from the north on October 27-29. In fact, this time, if it does not deviate, air temperatures will decrease significantly around the Republic Day period. I think that perhaps the first snow of the season could fall in the interior. For example, the first snow of the season could fall in some cities like Ankara, Eskişehir, Afyonkarahisar, and Kütahya.”

DATE GIVEN FOR THE FIRST SNOWFALL

Saying, “I am expecting another very serious cold air mass between November 7-10,” Bozyurt stated that this cold air system could also bring snowfall and added the following:

“Around November 11, a high pressure system will come again. There may be an air temperature that will be around or slightly above seasonal norms for a week to 10 days. We call this 'pastırma yazı' (Indian summer) among the public. Indian summers usually last 2-3 weeks. But this year, I do not expect it to last very long. So it looks like it will be for about a week or 10 days.”

HOW WILL DAMS BE AFFECTED?

In Istanbul, where the water level in dams is at an alarm point, the drought is a worrying situation. However, according to meteorological forecasts, this may give way to an optimistic picture with autumn and winter rains. Bozyurt commented on the data regarding the future period for Istanbul as follows:

“Generally, the northwestern regions of the country will have a rainy winter. But in Istanbul and its surroundings, very high levels of precipitation are not seen until December. From December onwards, I expect heavy rainfall. In January and February, there may be sea-effect snowfalls. Snow has a very high water-holding capacity, and therefore, potential water emerges during snowmelt. It also has a very positive effect on dams. Apart from this, snow also brings down ammonia from the air and makes the soil more fertile.”