Expert warns of possible Marmara earthquake, saying it is 'imminent'! Draws attention to tsunami danger

Prof. Dr. Candan Gökçeoğlu, a faculty member at Hacettepe University's Faculty of Engineering, Department of Geological Engineering, stated that while Istanbul is always the focus when discussing a possible Marmara earthquake, the earthquake has the potential to affect all provinces in the region.

In his statement, Gökçeoğlu emphasized that natural events with the potential to cause damage turn into disasters as a result of errors in construction and planning, and the failure to sufficiently or at all consider engineering principles.

Pointing out that losses and damages increase when earthquakes occur in regions with dense residential populations and economic activity that have not completed their preparations against disasters, Gökçeoğlu said that one must be aware of which natural hazards can develop and where.

Gökçeoğlu said, "If we plan, design, and build our settlements, buildings, public and service buildings, and transportation structures such as railways, highways, and motorways—as well as their infrastructure systems, electricity, sewage, and water systems—according to this awareness, no natural hazard will turn into a disaster for us. We might have minor losses, but it will not turn into a disaster."

"WE ARE WAITING, IT IS IMMINENT"

Noting that the North Anatolian Fault Zone, which runs from Karlıova to the Gulf of Saros, consists of many segments, Gökçeoğlu stated that almost all of these segments have ruptured in the last century.

Explaining that one of the two segments that have not yet ruptured is the Sea of Marmara and the other is the Yedisu segment between Bingöl and Erzincan, Gökçeoğlu continued as follows:

"Therefore, there is a scientific and technical expectation of an earthquake on both of these. It is more likely that the earthquake will occur in the Sea of Marmara sooner, because the Düzce Earthquake occurred 3 months after the 1999 earthquake. That segment there also ruptured. There is the 1912 Saros Earthquake. The region between the 1912 and 1999 earthquakes is currently waiting, ready for an earthquake. In the common parlance, we are waiting for it, it is imminent. According to some, these two parts will rupture and not reach 7, while according to others, it will rupture in a single piece and reach 7.4."

"IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SERIOUSLY AFFECT SURROUNDING PROVINCES TOO"

Gökçeoğlu noted that while there is data obtained from seismic studies in the Sea of Marmara, they cannot see the seabed as clearly as they can on land, and assessed: "Whether this earthquake is 6.9 or 7.2, it has the potential to seriously affect Istanbul, Kocaeli, Yalova, Bursa, Bandırma, and even Tekirdağ one way or another. In other words, people always say 'Istanbul, Istanbul' when talking about the Marmara Region, but it has the potential to seriously affect almost the entire region."

TSUNAMI WARNING

Pointing out that since the active fault that will produce the earthquake remains within the Sea of Marmara, coastal cities will be affected, Gökçeoğlu said that while drawing attention to Istanbul, other cities should not be overlooked because the fault is located quite close to other provinces as well.

Gökçeoğlu noted that significant underwater landslides in the northern region of the fault in the Sea of Marmara could be triggered following the earthquake, and therefore a tsunami effect could be observed.

In this context, stating that the Anatolian side is slightly luckier than the European side in terms of geology, Gökçeoğlu explained that building quality, transportation, and infrastructure networks are still parameters that will affect the scale of losses in a likely earthquake.

Expressing that many of the new buildings in Istanbul have received good engineering services, Gökçeoğlu added that they do not expect damage to occur in Istanbul's bridges, tunnels, and metro systems in a possible earthquake, but that damage is inevitable in old, intertwined structures where planning and engineering services were not correct.