First assessment from Ankara regarding the Iranian missile: Was the target Incirlik Air Base?

The Ministry of National Defense announced yesterday at noon that a ballistic munition fired from Iran had passed through Iraqi and Syrian airspace and headed toward Turkey.

In the statement made by the Ministry of National Defense, it was stated, "A ballistic munition, which was detected to have been fired from Iran and headed toward Turkish airspace after passing through Iraqi and Syrian airspace, was timely engaged and neutralized by NATO air and missile defense assets stationed in the Eastern Mediterranean."

Shrapnel fragments belonging to the ballistic missile fell into the Dörtyol district of Hatay.

NATO Spokesperson Allison Hart stated in her remarks on the subject, "We condemn Iran's targeting of Turkey. Our deterrence and defense posture in all domains, including air and missile defense, is strong."

Okan Müderrisoğlu, one of the columnists for Sabah Newspaper known for his proximity to the government, reported on the developments in Ankara regarding the Iranian missile in his column today.

Writing that AKP Chairman and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan was informed about the incident immediately, Müderrisoğlu noted that it is estimated the target of the missile may have been Incirlik Air Base. Müderrisoğlu noted that the possibility of a missile launched at bases in Cyprus having veered off course remains in the background for now.

Müderrisoğlu's column titled 'It had been discussed with NATO and a state of alert had been declared!':

"The question is quite clear and precise: 'Was it foreseen that Iran's strategy of creating costs for regional countries and expanding the area of conflict could one day target Turkey as well?'

The answer to this question is hidden in the Turkish state tradition and state wisdom.

As for the reason...

Before both the attacks by the US-Israel duo in June 2025 and the second wave of operations that began on February 28, 2026, Ankara issued the necessary warnings to its counterparts in Tehran through diplomatic, intelligence, and military channels! The Iranian side, as one might expect, argued that it was retaliating not against neighboring countries, but against American assets in those countries!

Turkey did not stop at this warning. This is the critical part! It also invited its NATO allies to take an active role. In other words, it requested that the alliance be vigilant against a potential missile threat directed at Turkish territory!

In the face of the incident that unfolded yesterday morning, President Tayyip Erdoğan was informed immediately, and comprehensive analyses were conducted.

'Who pressed the button for the ballistic munition that was detected to have been fired from Iran and headed toward Turkish airspace after passing through Iraqi and Syrian airspace?' First, efforts were made to clarify this issue. While we are at it, let us state... Turkish and NATO radars track missile trails rapidly.

The Iranian missile was shot down by a munition fired from a US warship located in the Eastern Mediterranean as part of the NATO mission.

It is estimated that the target was Incirlik Air Base. The claim that a missile launched at bases in Cyprus might have veered off course remains in the background for now.

While maintaining its composure, Ankara is giving its first messages through high determination and alliance solidarity. It is assessed that there is a weakness in the state administration following the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Iran, and that disorganization within security units has been added to this picture.

Due to the paralysis of the upper echelon, it is emphasized that the Iranian army has switched to a 'mosaic command' system and that each unit can react independently or uncontrollably. Despite this, it is recorded that 'Turkey has clearly shown its counterparts that it will not leave any uncontrolled action directed at its borders and airspace unanswered in the clearest way,' and that no attempt threatening our national security will go unanswered.

And two final words...

The importance of our President Tayyip Erdoğan's call to 'strengthen our internal front' and his 'peace diplomacy'—as the only leader who criticizes both the attacks on Iran and Iran's attempt to spread the fire to regional countries—is understood once again.

The integrated, goal-oriented, and transparent information approach of the Directorate of Communications, the Ministry of National Defense, and the AK Party Promotion and Media Department also deserves appreciation."