Ahmet Ercan gives a date for the Marmara earthquake! Will there be a tsunami?

Prof. Dr. Övgün Ahmet Ercan emphasized that statements circulating in the public sphere regarding the expected major earthquake in Marmara, such as “it could happen at any moment” and “the earthquake has already occurred,” lack a scientific basis. Ercan also stated that the view that the 6.2-magnitude earthquake that occurred on April 23 was the “expected major earthquake” is not valid.

Ercan stated that in his study, which involved a linear analysis of approximately 2,000 years of earthquake data in the Marmara region, they identified three separate historical rupture trends. Noting that 16 destructive earthquakes have occurred in the region to date according to these trends, Ercan said, “Now, the 17th major earthquake is expected.”

WHEN WILL THE MAJOR EARTHQUAKE OCCUR?

According to Prof. Dr. Ercan’s analyses, the year 2064 stands out as the likely time for the expected major earthquake in Marmara. However, since historical data shows that earthquakes in the past have generally occurred with a delay of 75 to 100 years, this date could extend to the 2045–2085 range. Ercan emphasized that these assessments are based on scientific calculations.

Stating that earthquakes of different magnitudes are expected at two separate points in Marmara, Ercan said, “Earthquakes of M6.4–M6.7 could occur off the coast of Küçükçekmece, and M6.9–M7.1 off the coast of Silivri.” He stated that these earthquakes would occur at a depth of approximately 7–10 kilometers on strike-slip faults within the granite layer.

IS A TSUNAMI EXPECTED?

According to Prof. Dr. Ercan, small surge waves (mini-tsunamis) could be seen during the earthquakes that will occur in Marmara. However, he specifically noted that these waves would not create a lethal danger. This assessment shows that the fear of a tsunami among the public has no scientific basis.

“With this study, the claims that the earthquake that will break the Marmara region will be at least 7.5 in magnitude, or that there will be no earthquake at all, have collapsed,” said Ercan, emphasizing that the probabilities are much more complex and based on measurable scientific data.

Ercan argued that statements such as “There is a 67 percent probability that a 7.5-magnitude earthquake could happen at any moment” are unscientific and based on spreading fear.