Bad news for Erdoğan from the latest poll: Decline has begun in AKP, who does the public want to see as a presidential candidate?

The main opposition party, the CHP, which continues to call for early elections, will hold a primary on March 23 to determine its presidential candidate. Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu will be the sole candidate in the eagerly awaited primary.

Public opinion research companies are also continuing their polling efforts. Most recently, the results of the survey conducted by Panorama Research between February 10-18 were shared.

Accordingly, the picture that emerges after "distributing the undecided voters" is as follows:

AKP: 24.7 percent

CHP: 24.6 percent

DEM: 7.2 percent

MHP: 5.3 percent

ZAFER: 3.7 percent

İYİ: 2.7 percent

YRP: 2.1 percent

OTHER: 4.3 percent

UNDECIDED: 25.5 percent

10Haber columnist Ertuğrul Özkök, who covered the poll results in his column, touched upon the 3 points the AKP has lost since December.

Reminding that the AKP's vote share was 27.6 percent in December 2024 due to developments in Syria, while the CHP's was 23.9 percent, Özkök stated that the AKP fell to 25.1 percent in January, while the CHP remained at 23.9 percent.

Stating, "When I looked at the numbers, the reason for the three points lost was very clearly visible," Özkök listed the reasons for the vote loss in the AKP as follows:

THOSE SAYING "THE ECONOMY IS GETTING WORSE" HAVE INCREASED BY 5 POINTS

The rate of those saying the economy is improving was 24.1 percent in December, but it fell to 19.6 percent in February.

In contrast, the rate of those saying the economy is getting worse rose from 63.7 percent in December to 68.6 percent in February.

In other words, the rate of those who do not believe TÜİK when it says inflation is falling has increased by 5 points.

THOSE WANTING EARLY ELECTIONS INCREASED BY THREE POINTS IN FEBRUARY

Turkey is divided in half regarding early elections.

The rate of those who want the election to be held on time remains the same.

While 49.6 percent of the public said "Elections should be held on time" in December; this rate remained more or less the same at 49.4 percent in January and 49.2 percent in February.

In contrast, the rate of those wanting "early elections" rose by three points.

While 42.5 percent of the public wanted early elections in December, this figure became 44.3 percent in January and 45.5 percent in February.

In other words, there is a steady rise in the rate of those who want early elections.

6 OUT OF EVERY 10 TURKS ARE AGAINST ERDOĞAN BEING A PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE AGAIN

This is one of the most striking results. Only 3 out of every 10 Turks look favorably on Erdoğan being a candidate again.

The vast majority of the public no longer desires for Erdoğan to be a candidate again.

31 PERCENT Yes, he should be

61 PERCENT No, he should not be

7.2 PERCENT I have no opinion.

The point to note in this result is this.

There is almost no one who says "I am undecided."

There are only those who say "I have no opinion," and their rate is also very low.

The meaning of this is as follows.

HE HAD SAID "THIS IS MY LAST ELECTION" IN 2023, THE PUBLIC WANTS THIS PROMISE KEPT

The Turkish public's view on this matter is becoming clear. They now want to see a new person as president.

This is also normal.

The President had said in the 2023 election, "This is my last election."

It means people expect this promise to be kept.

I interpret this not as "metal fatigue" in Erdoğan, but as "fatigue in the public" caused by the duration being too long.

WHO DOES THE PUBLIC WANT TO SEE AS A PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE?

There is one more question that confirms the result above.

"Who would you like to see as President?"

Only 17 percent of those who participated in the survey want to see Erdoğan as a presidential candidate in 2028.

23 percent say Mansur Yavaş, 16 percent say Ekrem İmamoğlu, and 8 percent say Hakan Fidan.

SUPPORT FOR THE PROCESS OF TALKS WITH ÖCALAN FELL BY 6 POINTS IN ONE MONTH

I think there is a very important development that is thought-provoking.

"Support for the process of disarming the PKK..."

DECLINE IN SUPPORTERS: While the rate of those saying "I support it" was 52.2 percent in December, it fell to 51 percent in January and 45 percent in February.

THOSE WHO DO NOT SUPPORT: While it was 38 percent in December, it rose to 39.1 percent in January and 41.7 percent in February.

Undoubtedly, the end of PKK terrorism is a very positive development for all of us.

Good news: The rate of those who support it is still higher.

Bad news: But the fact that the rate of those who do not support it is rising steadily shows this.

This process must be managed better.

Most importantly, it must be carried out by sincerely including the CHP opposition.

THE DISMISSAL OF THE LIEUTENANTS

The poll clearly reveals this.

The majority of the Turkish public finds the "removal of young lieutenants from the Armed Forces" to be wrong.

The rate of those who say "It is correct" is only 24 percent.

The rate of those who say "The lieutenants taking a separate oath is against discipline" is 30.7 percent.

The rate of those who say "It is not" is 40.4 percent.

48.5 percent of the public thinks that "This oath cannot be seen as a message against the government."

Those who say "It is a message" are 24.4 percent.

THE ARREST OF ÜMİT ÖZDAĞ

The arrest of Zafer Party Chairman Ümit Özdağ is not found to be correct by the Turkish public.

45.1 PERCENT: Says "I do not find this correct."

24.1 PERCENT: Is of the opinion that "His arrest is correct."

30.8 PERCENT: Says "I have no opinion."

LAWSUITS AGAINST İMAMOĞLU

Those who participated in the survey overwhelmingly believe that the "lawsuits filed against Ekrem İmamoğlu" are politically motivated.

48 PERCENT: "The lawsuits filed against İmamoğlu are politically motivated."

26.2 PERCENT: Is of the opinion that "This lawsuit is legal."

25.6 PERCENT: "I have no opinion."

THE POLL SHOWS THIS: THE AKP CAN NO LONGER READ THE PUBLIC

Why did the three points that President Erdoğan gained due to the situation in Syria fall in February?

These are the reasons revealed by the research.

The AKP, which once conducted politics by taking the public's feelings into account, is now at risk of losing even its status as a party that settles for 30 percent of the voters in Turkey as it moves away from the public's agenda and feelings.

Most importantly, the "strengthened presidential regime" is drawing a high wall between the AKP and the public.

POLARIZATION NO LONGER WORKS FOR THE AKP, BUT FOR THE CHP

One of the most important reasons is "the judiciary increasingly coming under the command of politics..."

The data for this month shows that the government's strategy of putting pressure on the political sphere and suffocating the opposition by actively involving the judiciary over the last two months has not provided any benefit to the government.

This also shows the following.

The criticism rising among the public against the recent decisions of the judiciary consolidates the votes the CHP received on March 31 and benefits the opposition more.

In other words, the polarization that used to benefit the AKP and President Erdoğan has now started to work in favor of the opposition.

While the AKP says "Let me consolidate my votes," it is, on the contrary, consolidating the CHP's votes.