Difference between AKP and CHP in latest poll draws attention

The results of the latest public opinion poll conducted by Optimar Research with 2,000 people across Turkey have been published. In the table formed by distributing the undecided voters, those who stated they would not vote, and those who did not respond—measured at the 29 percent level—the gap between the top two parties drew attention.

The AKP ranked first with 34.1%.

The CHP was positioned in second place with 29.2%.

The gap between the top two parties was calculated as 4.9 points.

DEM Party: 9.6%

MHP: 8.5%

İYİ Party: 8.0%

Zafer Party: 3.1%

Yeniden Refah Party: 1.6%

A Party: 1.4%

Büyük Birlik Party: 1.2%

Vatan Party: 0.9%

Other: 2.3%

FOUR-MONTH EVALUATION

A four-month comparison showed that the AKP fluctuated between 33.6 percent and 35.2 percent, while the CHP rose to the 29.2 percent level in March after falling to 27.3 percent in January.

While the DEM Party was measured at 9.9 percent in December, 12.8 percent in January, 10.8 percent in February, and 9.6 percent in March; the MHP was recorded at 8.2 percent, 9.6 percent, 8.3 percent, and 8.5 percent, respectively.

The vote share of the İYİ Party was determined to be 7.8 percent in December, 7.6 percent in January, 8.9 percent in February, and 8.0 percent in March.

There was also a notable change in the rate of undecided voters: the rate, which was 9.7 percent in December, fell to 7.8 percent in January and 7.6 percent in February, before rising back to the 9.7 percent level in March.

PARTY PREFERENCE - CURRENT VOTING PREFERENCE

Comparing party preferences from May 14, 2023, with current voting trends revealed that the groups with the highest voter loyalty are the CHP, the Green Left/DEM line, and AKP voters.

While 74.2 percent of those who voted for the CHP in the 2023 elections stated that they would prefer the same party today, 71.6 percent of Green Left Party voters turned to the DEM Party.

The loyalty rate among AKP voters was measured at 66.7 percent. While 47.5 percent of MHP voters remained with their party, 21.2 percent shifted to the AKP and 10.3 percent to the İYİ Party. Among İYİ Party voters, in contrast to a 47.3 percent loyalty rate, it was observed that 21.7 percent turned to the CHP and 12.6 percent to the MHP.

The transition table also included data regarding smaller parties.

While 42.2 percent of Yeniden Refah Party voters continued to prefer the same party, 27.7 percent stated they would not vote, and 12.0 percent stated they were undecided.

While 53.0 percent of Zafer Party voters remained with their party, 12.1 percent were undecided, and 12.1 percent did not respond.

Of the voters who did not cast a ballot in 2023, 54.1 percent stated they did not respond today, 30.2 percent stated they would not vote again, and 5.1 percent stated they were undecided.