Ekrem İmamoğlu indictment stirs up the AKP: Three different scenarios have emerged

Journalist Nuray Babacan stated in her column today that the third indictment prepared against Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu has caused a major stir in Ankara.

The article claims that leading figures of the party and some ministers met with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and expressed that appointing trustees to CHP-run municipalities would create both legal and political problems. However, it was stated that there has been no change in Erdoğan's approach to this issue.

Pointing to the three different scenarios being discussed within the AKP and highlighting the uncertainty in the ruling wing, Babacan commented, "In this struggle for the remaining 10 points among a voter base split 40 to 40 percent, no one is entirely certain. Within the ruling party, they are trying to create a roadmap based on external analyses and mixed emotions."

Nuray Babacan's article titled 'Appointing a trustee to Istanbul!' is as follows:

The judiciary, unable to curb its pace, has prepared an indictment against Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu for the third time, causing yet another wave of turbulence in Ankara. Within the ruling party, there are those who think all of this is not part of a clever plan, as well as those who claim this process will result in the appointment of a trustee to Istanbul.

Day by day, what is being discussed in the ruling party has started to become 'more complex, more unpredictable, and stranger.' While the majority of AKP members are 'just spectators,' those who are thinking about it seem 'disorganized'...

THE TEAM THAT WENT TO ERDOĞAN RETURNED EMPTY-HANDED

Before moving on to the analyses of the AKP members, let us leave an important note here. It is recounted that during the days when the appointment of trustees to CHP-run municipalities began, leading party figures and some ministers went to the President to express that what was happening would create trouble for the ruling party and was also legally problematic, but that Tayyip Erdoğan's approach did not change.

The latest indictment, which was leaked to the pro-government media before Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu and his lawyers were notified, should be viewed within this framework. The indictment, which demands up to 7 years in prison and a political ban, is the third file against İmamoğlu.

THREE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS IN THE AKP

It is possible to group the perspective on these events within the ruling party under 3 headings. Those who think all of this benefits the opposition, those who interpret the developments in terms of Mansur Yavaş, and those who believe this plan will stir up internal conflict within the CHP, which will in turn benefit them;

1- Those who say it is problematic in terms of democratic processes: "Friends are asking if there is any ill intent towards us in this incident. Despite everything, the judiciary should not become politicized. The situation has turned into a blind fight between the judiciary and İmamoğlu. Furthermore, the trial process will not proceed so easily. The completion of the appellate and supreme court processes takes time, and a snap election decision would suspend all of this. Even if you block İmamoğlu, what changes? You unite the other side, and someone else comes along even stronger..."

2- Those who say efforts are being made for the opposition's candidate to be Mansur Yavaş argue the thesis that 'Yavaş cannot get votes from the Kurds and will fall apart during the election campaign.' However, there are not a few who say, 'Yavaş is a bigger risk for us because he can more easily win the votes of disgruntled conservatives. The Kurdish voters who vote for the CHP do not ideologically prefer us anyway; the calculations are wrong'...

3- One group is very sharp. There are those who say, "From now on, nothing will be a surprise. This business will go as far as appointing a trustee to Istanbul." They believe that blocking İmamoğlu politically will not produce the same results as what was done to Tayyip Erdoğan in the past, and that removing İmamoğlu from politics will divide the opposing front.

The expectation of those who argue that the Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu team, wanting to take advantage of the rift that will emerge in the CHP, will reappear, and that even Özgür Özel will enter the mix for candidacy, and that this division will benefit the AKP, is clear. Just like hoping for a fragmented structure, similar to what happened at the last minute in the Nation Alliance during the last elections.

This is the situation in the ruling camp. Those interpreting this struggle for 10 points among a voter base split 40 to 40 percent are not entirely sure of anything. They are moving forward with scenarios created outside of themselves and mixed emotions!