Expert answers the 'earthquake' question: Is Istanbul in danger?

The 6.2 magnitude earthquake that occurred in Istanbul on April 23 caused great fear. While the situation in the region was being examined following the earthquake, Prof. Dr. Osman Bektaş made a new statement on his social media account, drawing attention to the Avcılar Segment.

Bektaş, who began his statement by asking, 'Is Istanbul in danger?', said, "Conclusion: The 6.2 earthquake, in a way, tested the status of the Avcılar segment. According to current data, the Avcılar segment is much less dangerous for Istanbul than expected."

In his assessment, Prof. Dr. Bektaş emphasized the Avcılar segment while also relaying the current situation. Starting his post with the question "Is Istanbul in danger?", Prof. Dr. Bektaş used the following expressions:

"After the stress transfer caused by the M6.2 earthquake towards Istanbul, all eyes are on the unbroken Avcılar segment. Why didn't the Avcılar segment break? The stresses were low. (creep, creeping fault does not accumulate enough energy) The fault was locked. (Becker et al., 2023) The stresses were insufficient. In a creep state, the danger to Istanbul is low.

In a locked state, the danger to Istanbul is high. In addition to the Avcılar secondary branch of the main fault being locked at a depth of less than 1 km and creeping at 5mm/year (Diao et al., 2016); on the main fault, in addition to the seismicity from Tekirdağ towards Avcılar, the shallowing of the creep-full flow depth (Uchida et al., 2019) makes the possibility of creep stronger."

In the continuation of his statements, Bektaş used the expressions, "Conclusion: The 6.2 earthquake, in a way, tested the status of the Avcılar segment. According to current data, the Avcılar segment is much less dangerous for Istanbul than expected."