First poll of October released: Operation move did not work

The October polls conducted by the research companies Panaroma and KONDA have revealed the latest picture in politics. While a remarkable increase in the CHP's vote share was observed in the public opinion surveys, the public support for Ankara Metropolitan Municipality Mayor Mansur Yavaş drew attention.

Economic problems and the difficulty of making a living stood out as the most important agenda items for voters in the polls. A large portion of the participants expressed dissatisfaction with the government, stating that they "cannot make ends meet."

While the ruling wing continues its messages of a "New Constitution" and a "Turkey without Terrorism," the opposition front has increased its calls for "early elections" due to the economic situation.

CHP'S VOTE SHARE IS ON THE RISE

According to Panaroma and KONDA data, the CHP's vote share has recorded an increase compared to the previous month. It was stated that the party has maintained its support, especially in metropolitan cities, and there has been a limited decrease in the rate of undecided voters.

MANSUR YAVAŞ IS AT THE FOREFRONT

Ankara Metropolitan Municipality Mayor Mansur Yavaş's positive perception in the public eye continues. In the October surveys, Yavaş ranked among the top in the list of "most liked politicians."

Despite the developments that came to the agenda regarding the request for "permission to investigate" Yavaş, no significant decline in public support was recorded.

RESULTS OF PANAROMA AND KONDA'S OCTOBER POLL

In his article, Özkök announced the October results of Panaroma and Konda, saying, "I closely follow the results of two public opinion polling companies that I trust every month."

According to the poll results, President Erdoğan's foreign policy move in October did not reflect on the AKP or the President in terms of votes. In Turkey, two out of every three people still find the cases against İmamoğlu and Yavaş to be political.

The CHP's vote share, the situation of ABB Mayor Mansur Yavaş, how Trump and Gaza diplomacy reflected on the AKP, and the government's most successful and least successful ministers were shown in the poll results.

Özkök's poll article, which became the agenda, is as follows:

"According to Panaroma, two foreign successes have brought nothing to the AKP. According to Panaroma, the foreign policy move in October did not affect the votes the AKP would receive if an election were held today compared to September.

However, I said last month that the CHP is 'heading towards 40 percent.' This progress has paused a bit.

IF AN ELECTION WERE HELD TODAY, WHICH PARTY WOULD YOU VOTE FOR?

The answers given to the question 'If an election were held today, which party would you vote for' are as follows:

CHP: 35.8 percent

AKP: 34.4 percent

In other words: In this one month, the CHP lost 0.8 points, falling from 36.6 percent to 35.8 percent. The AKP gained 0.1 points, rising from 34.3 percent to 34.4 percent.

However, according to Konda, the situation is the opposite.

Since September, the AKP has been ahead by a very small margin.

THE 'LEADER OF THE CENTURY' PROPAGANDA OF THE PRO-GOVERNMENT MEDIA HAS HAD NO EFFECT

This means the following:

These two events, which were described as a "world-class success" by the pro-government media, have caused almost no change in the citizens' voting tendencies.

Konda General Manager's assessment: 'A tick'

According to Konda General Manager Aydın Erdem, this event led to a 'tick' increase in President Erdoğan's approval rating.

My interpretation is as follows:

The "leader of the century" label might consolidate President Erdoğan's image, but its reflection on votes does not happen that way.

Panaroma research director's assessment: CHP is consistently ahead

The assessment of Panaroma Research Director Osman Sert is as follows: "When looking at the trend of the competition between the AK Party and the CHP, since March, for the last eight months - excluding the very close values measured in June - the CHP has been receiving more votes than the AK Party.

The difference between them changes mostly depending on how the ruling party's votes are affected by geopolitical and domestic political developments.

The CHP, on the other hand, is progressing more consistently.

The decline in the vote share of undecided voters over time makes the distribution between the two parties more stable."

'THOSE WHO FIND THE PRESIDENT UNSUCCESSFUL INCREASED AGAIN THIS MONTH'

For me, the more important indicator than the election result is this:

What was the rate of those who found President Erdoğan's performance "Successful" and "Unsuccessful" in October?

(*) In September, the rate of those who found the President's performance successful was 38 percent. After those two major foreign policy moves in October, the votes of those who found him successful increased by 1 point to 39 percent.

But there is a very interesting second figure.

(*) In the same one-month period, the rate of those who found the President's performance "Unsuccessful" also increased, rising from 51.1 percent to 52.9 percent.

In other words, the pro-government media's pumping of success increased polarization on both sides, increasing the rates of both those who found him successful and those who found him unsuccessful.

And strangely enough, while the rate of those who found him successful increased by 1 point, the rate of those who found him unsuccessful rose by 1.8 points.

The pro-government media's propaganda increased polarization, but this did not benefit Erdoğan, but the opposition.

The truth these figures tell us is this:

Traditional "polarizing politics" is now working in favor of the CHP.

I think the Presidential Communications Directorate and the AKP's staff should evaluate these figures very well.

But of course, they should do this by looking at the figures of reliable companies, not their own research companies that managed to be wrong by 30 points even in the Northern Cyprus election, which has a total of 218 thousand voters.

The government's most successful and least successful ministers

By the way, let me give an important result regarding the perception of success of the Strengthened Presidential Government System.

(*) THE GOVERNMENT'S REPORT CARD IS WEAK: The government's general report card average is weak with 3.8 points out of 10.

(*) HIGHEST SCORE IS IN COUNTER-TERRORISM: The government receives the highest scores in the areas of counter-terrorism (5.1 points), health (5.0 points), and foreign policy (4.7 points).

(*) WEAKEST ARE EDUCATION AND JUSTICE: The areas with the lowest performance are the education system (2.7 points), the economy (2.4 points), and the justice system (2.4 points).

The rate of those who find the cases political has been increasing since June

I am coming to two important developments for the opposition last month... The espionage allegation was announced on October 24.

In this research, the pollsters were in the field between October 13-24. In other words, the espionage allegation was not yet on the table.

The perception regarding the cases conducted against İmamoğlu and elected mayors has not changed at all since March 19.

Most interestingly, the rate of those who say "These cases are politically motivated" has been increasing steadily since last June.

I am sure that the espionage allegation, which does not contain a single credible element, will increase this rate even further.

69 PERCENT SAY 'MANSUR YAVAŞ DID NOT COMMIT CORRUPTION'

(*) While those who believe that these cases are politically motivated to hinder the opposition were 57.1 percent in July; it was 58.7 percent in September; and 62.1 percent in October.

In contrast, the rate of those who find these cases "Legal" showed the following trend:

(*) Those who say "It is a legal case" fell from 30.3 percent in July to 28.6 percent in September, and to 28.1 percent in October.

As for the allegation regarding Mansur Yavaş:

(*) 68.8 percent say "He did not commit corruption." A month ago, this figure was 58 percent.

The heavy propaganda of the pro-government media is backfiring

Here, too, we see the same sociological truth.

The government, which controls 90 percent of the classic and traditional media, cannot get results even from the heaviest propaganda of this media.

In fact, in some places, this backfires."