Frightening earthquake statement from expert: He gave a date for the Istanbul earthquake!
Senior Geophysical Engineer Prof. Dr. Ahmet Ercan described the magnitude 4 tremor in Bursa as a "minor earthquake" while making significant statements regarding the date of the expected major earthquake in the Marmara Region. Ercan shared his scientific views on the potential earthquake risk in Istanbul and when a major earthquake might occur in the Marmara Sea.
12punto
According to data from the Disaster and Emergency Management Authority (AFAD), a magnitude 4 tremor occurred in the Nilüfer district of Bursa yesterday at 13:43. It was reported that the earthquake occurred at a depth of 9.74 kilometers.
FRIGHTENING MARMARA EARTHQUAKE WARNING FROM EXPERT
Prof. Dr. Ahmet Ercan evaluated the fault lines and earthquake risks in the Marmara region, describing this tremor in Bursa as a "minor tremor." Emphasizing that earthquakes smaller than magnitude 4 should not be classified as "earthquakes," Ercan stated that such tremors should not cause panic among the public.
"These are local stress releases in that region. However, these small tremors do not prevent major earthquakes. To prevent a magnitude 7 earthquake, there would need to be 3,200 magnitude 5 earthquakes. For magnitude 3, 30,000 tremors are required."
WHEN WILL THE MARMARA EARTHQUAKE HAPPEN?
Providing a date regarding the expected major earthquake in the Marmara region, Ahmet Ercan said that the region has currently released enough stress that it will not produce a major earthquake.
"The Marmara released most of its stress with the magnitude 7.6 earthquake in 1999. According to the algorithm I developed, a major earthquake is not expected in the Marmara before 2045. In fact, this date could be delayed until 2075 or 2150. It is scientifically incorrect to say right now that 'an earthquake will happen at any moment'."
These statements contradicted the views of experts who expect an earthquake in the Marmara in the near future. However, Ercan defended his view based on his own scientific analysis.
Pointing out that Istanbul's population density is very high, Ahmet Ercan said that the most important thing that needs to be done in the city is not urban transformation, but the reduction of population density.
"Earthquake regulations were issued in 2007 and 2017. However, 25 billion dollars would be needed to carry out real urban transformation in Istanbul. What is currently being done is actually structural transformation. Green spaces and low-rise buildings should be created, and the burden on Istanbul should be reduced."
Ercan stated that Istanbul is under great risk due to its population density in the event of a possible major earthquake.
WHERE ARE TURKEY'S MOST RISKY REGIONS?
Explaining Turkey's most dangerous earthquake zones, Ercan drew attention specifically to Bingöl and Adapazarı.
"Even if there were no earthquakes anywhere else in Turkey, there would definitely be one in Bingöl. Because Bingöl is Turkey's most precarious earthquake zone. Furthermore, the Adapazarı and Sakarya basin are also regions where earthquakes are frequent. A major earthquake occurring here could lead to serious tremors in Istanbul."
These statements by Ahmet Ercan have reignited the ongoing debate over when the Marmara Earthquake will occur. For the millions of people living in the Marmara, the earthquake risk continues to be a major source of concern.