Is a surprise raise coming for retirees in July? A striking prediction from a Social Security expert

Millions of retirees are doing the math for the raise to be implemented in July. Following the 4-month inflation data announced by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK), all eyes have turned to May and June. During this period, the rate of the raise to be applied to pensions will become clear.

SGK expert and former chief inspector İsa Karakaş has made some striking predictions.

INFLATION REACHED 13.36% WITH APRIL DATA

With the April data announced by TÜİK, the total inflation for the January-April period reached 13.36 percent. This rate has already established the floor for the raise that SSK and Bağ-Kur retirees will receive in July.

LOWEST PENSION COULD EXCEED 16 THOUSAND

With the raise implemented in January, the lowest pension had risen to 14,469 TL. Based on his calculations using the 4-month inflation rate, Karakaş projected that this figure could rise to the 16,403 TL level in July. A person with a pension of 20,900 TL could see their pension rise to approximately 23,694 TL.

Karakaş emphasized that this estimate is based solely on the inflation difference and does not include a welfare share. It is stated that if a welfare share is also added, the raise rates could go even higher.

RAISE RATE WILL BE CLARIFIED WITH MAY AND JUNE DATA

The exact rate regarding the July raise will be determined once the May and June inflation data are announced. Reminding that these two months are decisive, Karakaş emphasized that the 6-month inflation is particularly important for civil servants and civil servant retirees.

CENTRAL BANK'S TARGET IS DIFFICULT

Karakaş also evaluated the Central Bank's 24 percent year-end forecast from its first inflation report of 2025. Stating that it is difficult to meet this target, the expert updated his own forecast for the end of the year to 30 percent.