Minimum wage and gold forecast from renowned economist

Assoc. Prof. Dr. Filiz Eryılmaz, who made assessments regarding the minimum wage and commodity markets, gave important messages concerning both the year-end inflation outlook and gold-silver prices.

Speaking to Sözcü TV, Eryılmaz drew attention to the method the government applied last year and stated that a similar approach could be on the agenda this year as well.

LAST YEAR'S METHOD ON THE AGENDA FOR MINIMUM WAGE

Eryılmaz recalled that last year's minimum wage was based on expected inflation, and with the addition of a 4 percent welfare share, the total increase reached 30 percent.

Stating that the same formula is coming to the fore for this year as well, Eryılmaz said that the Central Bank's year-end inflation expectation is 19 percent. Noting that a welfare share of 4–5 percent could be added to an increase above this rate, Eryılmaz said, "My expectation is a minimum of 23 percent and a maximum of 26 percent."

According to this calculation, it was stated that with a 23 percent increase, the minimum wage could reach 27 thousand 187 TL, and in the 25–26 percent band, it could reach the level of 27 thousand 630 TL.

VOLATILE PICTURE IN GOLD

Stating that sharp fluctuations were seen in gold last week, ALB Investment Chief Economist Eryılmaz noted that the reopening of the government in the US should normally suppress precious metals, but the opposite picture emerged.

Expressing that investors acted with the expectation that "the government has opened, data will start to be announced; the Fed, seeing the data, will also cut interest rates," Eryılmaz stated that developments contrary to this occurred yesterday and said the following:

"Gold and silver fell sharply. When Fed members spoke, precious metals declined. When Fed officials said 'there is no need for an interest rate cut,' confusion arose in the markets."

Stating that pullbacks could be seen at some levels in gold but the main direction is still upward, Eryılmaz shared her forecast of over 6 thousand TL for gram gold.

Noting that a strong rise is possible if stability is maintained above the 4 thousand 380 dollar level in ounce gold, Eryılmaz said that "a little more time and additional catalysts are needed for the unstoppable gold."

According to Eryılmaz, gold and silver may follow a horizontal course in the short term.

SILVER STANDS OUT IN 2025

Emphasizing that this year is the "year of silver," Eryılmaz stated that silver has outperformed gold in terms of returns. She expressed that if the Fed cuts interest rates, safe-haven demand continues, and recession risk does not come to the agenda, strong rises could be experienced in silver.

However, she said that if economic growth data comes in weak, a more fragile picture could be seen in silver. Reminding that silver has intensive industrial use, Eryılmaz said, "If there is a sharp sell-off on the gold side, silver will fall harder. Conversely, if there is a rise, silver will also rise."

SHOULD PHYSICAL OR FUNDS BE PREFERRED?

Answering the question about which method is more suitable for gold and silver investment, Eryılmaz said that the investment period is the determining factor.

Recommending AltınS1 or the gold certificate traded on the stock exchange to those who want to trade in the short term, Eryılmaz stated that the GMSTR-coded Silver ETF stands out in silver investment.

She stated that physical gold or silver could also be preferred for investors who are thinking long-term and do not see a risk of theft.