Şener Üşümezsoy warned about Simav 4 days ago! His words are back on the agenda after the earthquake...

A 5.4-magnitude earthquake occurred in the Simav district of Kütahya today at 12:59 PM. According to AFAD data, the depth of the tremor was measured at 8.46 kilometers.

The earthquake was felt in many provinces, including Istanbul, and caused anxiety in the region.

ŞENER ÜŞÜMEZSOY SAID IT 4 DAYS AGO

Following the earthquake, the warnings made by Prof. Dr. Şener Üşümezsoy days ago have returned to the agenda.

In a live broadcast he attended, Üşümezsoy stated that the Simav Fault still holds energy and could lead to an earthquake of 6.5–6.8 magnitude.

In his statement, Üşümezsoy had used the following expressions:

"When I come to Simav, I tell everyone that the potential length of the fault is 40 kilometers and a 6.7 or 6.8 earthquake will occur, but there are 2 bulges on the fault there. Because of those two separate bulges, it breaks like two separate faults. Just like they say there will be a 7-magnitude earthquake in Istanbul between Silivri and Yeşilköy."

HE HAD ALSO PREDICTED THE APRIL 23 EARTHQUAKE

Üşümezsoy's past statements had also caused a wide stir in public opinion. About 20 days before the 6.1-magnitude earthquake that occurred in Istanbul on April 23, his words, "A 6.0–6.5 magnitude earthquake could occur in Silivri," had become a topic of discussion.

Similarly, he had issued a warning before the 6.1-magnitude earthquake that occurred in the Sındırgı district of Balıkesir on August 10. Üşümezsoy had said, "There are regions where an earthquake is expected. There is Simav and just to its north towards Uşak, to its west is Balıkesir Sındırgı, and to the north is Emet. Earthquakes could occur there."

Connecting to the HaberTürk TV live broadcast after the earthquake, Prof. Dr. Şener Üşümezsoy said that the tremor occurred on the Simav fault, which he had been warning about for a long time. Stating that this earthquake could be a foreshock, Üşümezsoy expressed that the main locked part of the fault has not yet broken. He explained the issue with these words:

"There is a fault plane under the city of Simav. Breakages are occurring on that plane. The 5.4 earthquake is a rupture on the edges of this stuck, locked region; just as when we stick our hands together and the tearing starts from the edges, this is a rupture occurring on those edges. 5 and 5.4 magnitude earthquakes are earthquakes around the main rupture."

RISK OF A "6.5 OR EVEN 6.7" MAGNITUDE EARTHQUAKE ON THE SİMAV FAULT

Prof. Dr. Üşümezsoy drew attention to the structure of the fault and shared information regarding the possible earthquake magnitude. Stating that the fault consists of 25-30 kilometer segments seen as two separate arcs, Üşümezsoy noted the following:

"These faults indicate a potential for a 6.5 earthquake. However, if the two faults break together, this could turn into a 6.7 earthquake. For example, in Alaşehir in 1970, a 40-kilometer fault broke, resulting in a 6.7-6.8 earthquake. The earthquake I expected there was a 6.5. I have been voicing this for almost a year and a half. I said there is a risk in Simav and Sındırgı."

HE EXPLAINED THE FAULT MECHANISM WITH A "PALM" ANALOGY

Using the "palm" example to make the earthquake mechanism more understandable, Üşümezsoy continued his explanation as follows:

"Let's press our palms together. This stuck area in our palm is the area where the fault is stuck and locked to each other. We call this an 'asperity'. This area is under Simav. Tremors like today's 5.4 earthquake are small ruptures on the edges of this stuck area. When the ruptures are pulled quickly, the skin on our palm is also stripped and torn.

The earthquake that could reach 6.5 here is formed by this mechanism. Because Mount Simav wants to rise, it tears the small pieces of the stuck section around the fault plane. When that rupture reaches the large rupture, the main earthquake occurs."