The worst-case scenario for retirees has been eliminated!
While worst-case scenarios are no longer being discussed regarding the expected salary increase for retirees in January 2026, the latest status of raise rates and expectations for base pensions have been put on the table. The possibility of a zero raise has been removed from the Ankara agenda. Here are the details...
Millions of retirees in Turkey are eagerly awaiting the new regulation to be made for January 2026, following the salary increase they received in July 2025. The critical date is approaching: the raise rate will be finalized on January 5, 2026, the day TÜİK (Turkish Statistical Institute) announces the inflation data for December 2025.
Social Security Expert İsa Karakaş shared important information and current expectations regarding the upcoming raise.
Karakaş stated that he expects December 2025 inflation to remain below 1%. “I expect the December 2025 inflation to be below expectations, even below 1%,” he said. The expert announced that according to his own analysis, he predicts the rate that TÜİK will announce in December will be around a minimum of 0.70% and a maximum of 0.90%. He also underlined that, as required by legislation, the retiree salary increase will not fall below the inflation rate of the last 6 months.
THE RAISE IS IN THE POCKET
The 5-month cumulative inflation increase covering the July-November 2025 period was 11.21%. Karakaş evaluated this data as follows: “The 5-month cumulative increase covering the July-November period was registered as 11.21%. In other words, as of today, every retiree has already put this raise in their pocket, even if the December data comes in at 'zero'.”
Underlining that if December inflation remains in the 0.80% to 0.90% band, the total raise will be between 12.10% and 12.25%, Karakaş noted that the 12.5% level stands as a difficult possibility to reach.
IS THERE A RISK OF A ZERO RAISE?
Stating that the risk of a “zero raise” in retiree salaries has been eliminated, Karakaş reminded that for those whose base salary is below 15,000 TL, there might not be an increase in the base salary amount if an additional regulation is not made. “Especially retirees whose base salary is 15,000 TL and below may continue to receive the same money despite the inflation raise if a base salary regulation (new law) is not made,” Karakaş said, sharing insider information he obtained from Ankara and stating that this scenario has largely been taken off the agenda.
The figure being discussed in the corridors for the lowest retiree salary is 20,000 TL. Karakaş pointed out that anything below 20,000 TL is not being discussed as a psychological threshold and emphasized that it is a strong possibility that the current lowest salary of around 16,881 TL will be increased to the 18,948 TL or 20,000 TL level.
It is stated that demands for a flat-rate raise or a welfare share are not on the agenda due to the economic management's tight monetary policy. On this subject, Karakaş stated, “Due to the economic management's tight monetary policy, a flat-rate raise is not on the agenda for now, and a green light has not yet been given for a welfare share.”
While retirees now turn their eyes to the December inflation to be announced by TÜİK and possible legal regulations, the final decision regarding the January 2026 raise will be clarified at the beginning of January.