Warning from Ahmet Ercan for those two districts: He gave a date for the major earthquake

Earthquake expert Prof. Dr. Ahmet Ercan had previously drawn attention with his statements saying, "Do not buy houses in these regions." Listing the provinces and districts in Turkey where houses should not be bought on his social media accounts, Ercan pointed out that buildings constructed on wet and loose soil carry a great risk in earthquakes. Ercan specifically drew attention to the following regions:

It was stated that multi-story structures in areas with weak soil conditions in İzmir, Manisa, Aydın, Balıkesir, Istanbul (Ataköy, Yeşilköy, Haramidere, Bakırköy Yeşilyurt, Avcılar, Büyükçekmece, Esenyurt, Küçükçekmece, Zeytinburnu, Tuzla, Kağıthane), Kocaeli, Düzce, Yalova, Bursa, Adana, Mersin, Erzincan, Tokat, Amasya, Muğla, Fethiye, and many other provinces and districts carry a great risk in earthquakes.

Ercan emphasized that housing should not be purchased or rented in such places. He also recommended obtaining a "Ground-Structure Safety Certificate."

EXPECTATION OF A MAJOR EARTHQUAKE IN ISTANBUL: TWO DISTRICTS STAND OUT

Prof. Dr. Ercan also made important statements regarding the expected major earthquake in Istanbul. Stating that there is no active fault line directly within Istanbul, Ercan said that the earthquake would occur on the North Marmara line outside the Marmara region. Making an important statement for Istanbul, Ercan stated the following:

Two separate earthquakes are expected on the North Marmara fault line outside of Istanbul, approximately 25 km south of the Marmara coast. The first earthquake will be 25 km south of Küçükçekmece, at a depth of 7–10 km. The expected magnitude is between 6.4 and 6.8.

The second earthquake zone will be around Silivri. An earthquake with a magnitude of 6.2 occurred in this region on April 23, 2025. Despite the stress release following this earthquake, the expected magnitude will be between 6.9 and 7.1.

While stating that the earthquake will definitely happen, Prof. Dr. Ercan explained that it is too early for it and that the time interval is between 2065 and 2075. Ercan stated that earthquakes are expected to occur within this period.

Saying, "Those who said the earthquake could happen at any moment were proven wrong," Ercan provided more information regarding the date of the earthquake that has been expected for 26 years. Ercan said, "It is difficult to give an exact date for such major earthquakes, but according to my long-term predictions, the expected earthquakes in Istanbul could occur between 2065 and 2075."

"SOIL AND STRUCTURAL SAFETY ARE VERY IMPORTANT"

Ercan also gave warnings about what needs to be done against earthquake risk:

Underlining that solid ground and solid structures are required for a safe life during earthquakes and tremors, Ercan said that a "Ground-Structure Safety Certificate" should be requested when buying a home. He stated that if this document is negative, one should definitely not buy a house in that region.

Ercan emphasized that economic developments in Turkey are an important factor in preparation for earthquakes and risk reduction. Giving the examples of Japan and America, he explained how economic strengthening reduces earthquake risks:

"While even 7.3 magnitude earthquakes in America cause almost no destructive results, even a 6.1 magnitude earthquake in Turkey can lead to serious destruction," he said.

Ahmet Ercan emphasized that urban transformation efforts in Istanbul must be completed without delay. Stating that safe structures must be built on solid ground, Ercan said that local governments and citizens have important responsibilities in this regard.