Groundbreaking statement from Şener Üşümezsoy on the potential Istanbul earthquake! '7.4 earthquake scenarios...'

Following the consecutive 5.1 and 4.5 magnitude earthquakes in the Gulf of Gemlik, the potential Istanbul earthquake has returned to the agenda.

Small earthquakes ranging between 2.0 and 3.0 in magnitude continue to occur in the Sea of Marmara.

While citizens wonder whether these tremors are precursors to a major earthquake, Seismologist Prof. Şener Üşümezsoy made statements on the subject.

Evaluating the long-standing claims by earthquake experts that 'we expect an earthquake over 7 in Istanbul,' Prof. Dr. Üşümezsoy stated that the fault in the Sea of Marmara has been described as a dead fault. Noting that the actual fault passes in front of the Çınarcık region of Yalova, Prof. Dr. Üşümezsoy said, "There is no fault line running along the northern edge of the Marmara at any point."

Stating that the 7.4 earthquake scenarios for Istanbul have been discarded, Prof. Dr. Üşümezsoy said, "Why do they not see the 1894 earthquake, which was 4 times more intense than the one in 1766? Moreover, why do they not see it exactly where they claim Istanbul is? They have discarded the saying that 'an earthquake was happening every 250 years and it hasn't happened for 250 years, so an earthquake is imminent.'"

'THAT FAULT WILL NOT WORK'

Answering the question "Why does the Adalar fault not break?", Prof. Dr. Üşümezsoy replied as follows:

"If the force creating the earthquake hits the fault plane at a 45-degree angle, if we push a truck at a 45-degree angle, it creates a shearing force there and pushes the fault. Here, the east-west trending North Anatolian fault comes from the Gulf, passes through Sapanca, passes the Hersek Peninsula, and passes south of the Çınar basin. The force affecting it is the east-west force, look, the force shown in yellow going 45 degrees to the southeast. But it is impossible for this to affect the Adalar fault. Because when the maximum compressive force is parallel to the Adalar fault, that fault will not work anyway. It is a dead fault, but it does not work in terms of kinematic mechanism. Therefore, the story that the friends always carry the east-west trending fault here towards the islands, which Kandilli also carries, stems from not knowing kinematics."