Inconsistent forecast post from Prof. Dr. Övgün Ahmet Ercan: Earthquake magnitudes
Prof. Dr. Övgün Ahmet Ercan spoke about the earthquake forecasts that emerged following the 6.2 magnitude earthquake in Istanbul. Sharing his predictions for the Thrace region and Istanbul, Ercan stated, "It has been understood that earthquake magnitudes of 7.5-8.0 contain scientific inconsistencies."
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The 6.2 magnitude earthquake that occurred off the coast of Silivri in Istanbul and was felt in surrounding provinces has reignited fears of the expected major Marmara earthquake.
Following the earthquake, many experts expressed their views regarding the event and the expected earthquake.
Scientist Prof. Dr. Övgün Ahmet Ercan stated in a social media post that forecasts such as an 8.0 magnitude for the earthquake contain scientific inconsistencies.
"CONTAINS SCIENTIFIC INCONSISTENCY"
"The recent M6.2 earthquake showed that the northern Marmara is not composed of a single fracture. Therefore, it has been understood that earthquake magnitudes of M7.5-M8.0 contain scientific inconsistencies.
The final conclusion is that there will be a rupture with two earthquakes, one in the Thrace branch and one in the Istanbul branch, as I have emphasized since 1999. The largest expected earthquake is M7.0-M7.2.
Since the last earthquake shortened the fracture length by 28 km, it has dropped to M6.9-M7.1 on the Thrace branch, and two earthquakes between M6.4-M6.7 on the Istanbul branch."