Istanbul Kent University Faculty Member Prof. Dr. Ozan Örmeci speaks to 12punto: What awaits us in the second Trump era?

Istanbul Kent University Faculty Member Prof. Dr. Ozan Örmeci made statements to 12punto contributor Şenol Çarık. Prof. Dr. Ozan Örmeci evaluated Donald Trump, who won the US elections and was elected President of the US once again, and the possible developments in the region in the new term.

Responding first to the question, 'How do you evaluate the result, was it a surprise for you?', Örmeci said, “It was clearly not a surprise, given the assassination attempt before the election, Joe Biden’s advanced age and the very negative performance he displayed, and then Kamala Harris’s inability to achieve the expected spark both during her 4-year vice presidency and the subsequent campaign period.”

Stating, 'I honestly thought Trump would win, but the polls showed it so close, especially in the swing states—perhaps media and research organizations do this to keep it close and competitive,' Prof. Dr. Örmeci used the expressions, “The Democratic Party did not perform well in 4 years. Perhaps we can set aside the Covid-19 period, where they showed good work and developed the social state aspect. Afterwards, the Biden administration could not be the antithesis of Trump.”

Making evaluations regarding the second Trump era in terms of Turkish-American relations, Örmeci said, “A new administration is always an opportunity. The US CAATSA sanctions against Turkey could be lifted. The F-16 crisis could be resolved and Turkey could receive its jets. Turkey has remaining funds for the F-35, and the Trump administration could count that towards the F-16s instead, or return Turkey to the F-35 program, mediating a development that would please both the Turkish defense industry and manufacturers. Beyond this, the Trump administration could act in cooperation with Turkey regarding the PYD/YPG structure in Syria and preventing attacks originating from the PYD/YPG. Of course, it is not very easy to suddenly put a broken vase back together. Here, Assad won the war and was not defeated. The official head of state of Syria is Mr. Bashar al-Assad, who has stated many times that he wants to normalize relations with Turkey. I think that would be correct too, but a significant part of Syria is still controlled by Kurdish organizations, militias, or groups we can call terrorists, another significant part by Sunni opposition groups, and a portion by the TSK (Turkish Armed Forces). So, it is not very easy to unite this structure and create a new constitution and a new order. Uncertainty prevails and truly no one has a magic formula. Just like in Iraq, things may fall into place in Syria over time, and this would relieve Turkey,” he said.

Prof. Dr. Ozan Örmeci continued as follows:

IRAN IS THE MOST KEY COUNTRY IN THE MIDDLE EAST

Another important issue is the Trump administration's Iran policy. Iran is currently the most key country in the Middle East. We know Trump from his first term by his rhetoric against Iran and the late Iranian General Qasem Soleimani. Groups we call Iran hawks, together with the far-right wing of Israel, are pushing America towards Iran saying “let’s strike, let’s get out, let’s fight.” I think Trump is actually a sensible person. Iran is also a very large state. It has its own unique technology and is a state with an established system. It may have shortcomings. Every state has shortcomings. Participation in the last presidential elections also took place at a good level. I do not think we are talking about a regime with a weak social base. There will be a power struggle between two wings in Iran. I think the sensible wing will prevail and a major regional war will not be allowed.

So, will things go very friendly with Iran under Trump? No! He will continue to pursue an opposing policy towards China and Iran, both rhetorically and in action, and will not really want normalization. This will push Iran further into the Russia-China axis, the BRICS and Shanghai Cooperation Organization axis. A major defense agreement is also expected between Iran and Russia in the near future.

Iran has already become a member of BRICS and has proven itself. It had good relations with China. It also has very good relations with Russia. Regarding Iran, there may be controlled processes similar to these recent ones. I think the US will target Iran's proxy forces more than Iran directly.

They may choose to liquidate and weaken groups close to Iran in Lebanon, such as Hezbollah, and in Yemen and Iraq, and may want Iran to become more inward-looking.

Instead of starting a major front war, the US will continue its anti-Iran rhetoric and actions and will support Israel. The critical element here is that if the US gives a green light regarding the statehood of Palestine, Iran would not oppose this in principle either. I think perhaps a slightly moderate atmosphere could emerge.