Markets eye Central Bank's interest rate decision! What are the economists' expectations?

Following the Minimum Wage Determination Commission meeting held yesterday, the minimum wage was announced as 22,104 TL. The 2025 minimum wage figure, which rose to 22,104 TL after a 30 percent increase on the current 17,002 TL minimum wage, did not meet the expectations of citizens.

After the announcement of the minimum wage, all eyes turned to the interest rate decision that the Central Bank will announce for the last time this year.

WHAT WILL THE INTEREST RATE DECISION BE?

The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will announce the final interest rate decisions of the year on December 26 at 14:00, under the chairmanship of Central Bank Governor Fatih Karahan.

Economists' policy rate expectations range between 47.50 percent and 50.00 percent.

In the last MPC meeting, the policy rate was kept constant at 50 percent.

ECONOMISTS' EXPECTATIONS

The expectation survey for the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, conducted with the contribution of 14 economists, has concluded.

While 4 of the economists participating in the survey predicted that the policy rate would be kept constant, 10 predicted that it would be lowered.

The average value of the economists' expectations was for the interest rate to be lowered by 150 basis points to 48.50 percent.

According to the survey results, economists' policy rate expectations ranged between 47.50 percent and 50.00 percent. 

The average of economists' year-end 2025 policy rate expectations was 29.50 percent.