NAF warning for 24 provincial centers: '80 percent of structures could be damaged'
Neotectonics and earthquake expert Prof. Dr. Hamit Haluk Selim issued warnings regarding the North Anatolian Fault Line, which passes through the centers of 24 provinces. Selim stated that 80 percent of structures could be damaged in a potential magnitude 7 earthquake.
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"Earthquake-Resilient Urban Transformation Erzurum Workshop" attendee Prof. Dr. Hamit Haluk Selim made statements regarding potential earthquakes while in Erzurum.
Selim said the following:
"NEARLY 27 ACTIVE FAULTS"
"In the Eastern Anatolia and Southeastern Anatolia regions, there are many active faults belonging to the Northeastern Anatolia region, along with some segments of the North Anatolian and East Anatolian Faults. These are active faults that specifically surround Erzurum, Erzincan, and other residential areas. They have been moving for years. Many earthquakes have occurred, particularly those linked to the North and East Anatolian Faults, which have been active for 3.5 million years. Nearly 27 active faults, such as the Aşkale, Pasinler, Erzurum, and the connected Kandilli and Dumlu Faults, are in a state where they could produce an earthquake in this region at any moment."
"THE FAULT IS 100 KILOMETERS LONG"
Touching upon the Yedisu Fault, a seismic gap through which the East Anatolian and North Anatolian Faults pass, Selim noted:
"(The Yedisu Fault) is a fault we are talking about that is 100 kilometers long and 10 kilometers deep. This is a right-lateral strike-slip fault and one of the most dangerous ones. If one of the segments moves, for example, if it produces a magnitude 7.3 earthquake, there are indeed many places in this region with poor structural building stock and soil conditions. One of the measures you can take against earthquakes is to improve soil conditions, which is beyond our power. The second is urban transformation, which is a method for which a correct decision has been made. Through urban transformation, you create cities that are resilient to earthquakes."
IN AN EARTHQUAKE THAT COULD OCCUR ON 27 FAULTS...
Reminding that 24 provinces are located on the North Anatolian Fault, Selim said, "Therefore, since we cannot lift these cities and move them elsewhere, we must renovate our cities here, but unfortunately, 80 percent of our structures are in very poor condition. In other words, if a major earthquake occurs again, earthquakes of magnitude 7 and above that could occur on any segment on the North Anatolian Fault or on the 27 active faults are damaging and destructive in nature, so unfortunately, 80 percent of the buildings would be damaged or destroyed."