New fault lines added: Turkey's map turns deep red

The major earthquakes centered in Kahramanmaraş on February 6, 2023, led to significant changes in Turkey's seismic hazard map. These earthquakes, which were felt primarily in the Eastern and Southeastern Anatolia regions, as well as in the Mediterranean, Central Anatolia, and Black Sea regions, affected ten provinces and left behind massive destruction. In the three years since the disaster, Turkey's fault lines have been completely reviewed.

Earthquake researcher Prof. Dr. Hasan Sözbilir makes the following assessments: "On February 6, 2023, we experienced one of the world's largest earthquakes. Within a few seconds, fault segments from Hatay to Adıyaman and Kahramanmaraş ruptured one after another. A rupture exceeding 350 kilometers occurred. It was a 7.7 magnitude earthquake. Nine hours later, before people could even recover, a second earthquake occurred in the form of a rupture of at least 150 kilometers of a fault further north. Therefore, when we consider the two earthquakes together, a rare seismic event occurred globally. We are talking about a loss of life exceeding 50 thousand. Significant material damage and loss occurred. We are still trying to heal our wounds after these major earthquakes. It has been a great lesson for us as well. The earthquake activity of the last 25 years, which began with the '99 earthquake, has thus reached its peak level."

In the region where approximately one hundred thousand aftershocks have been recorded, experts state that post-earthquake recovery efforts are ongoing and that the return to normalcy has gained momentum with the support of the state, citizens, and various institutions from abroad. However, it is noted that the impact of trauma is still strongly felt in the region.

Experts point out that new stress accumulations are occurring in areas adjacent to the large ruptured faults, that aftershocks are frequent, and that for this reason, earthquake-resistant new urbanization projects in the region must be accelerated. "Aftershocks approaching magnitude 6 may occur in the region. Kahramanmaraş, Hatay, and Gaziantep are within the main mechanism. Adıyaman is one of the provinces affected at the closest level to these. However, there are also faults adjacent to the ruptured ones. We have serious faults on the Adana and Malatya side. On the Adıyaman side, there are segments that have not yet ruptured on some fault branches connected to the East Anatolian Fault. Additionally, on the Göksun side, at the southwestern end of the second earthquake, there is the Savrun Fault. Many earthquakes have occurred on it, but the rupture has not yet taken place. Perhaps we may experience a problem with this in the future. It has the potential to produce an earthquake around magnitude 7. Its rupture could take years. It is currently showing serious resistance. Apart from this, there is the Ecemiş Fault in the west. It is an important fault extending from Kayseri to Pozantı and Adana. It has also been silent for a long time. Faults like the Erciyes Fault on the Kayseri side have not produced earthquakes in the long term. These major earthquakes are accumulating stress on these faults."

Prof. Dr. Sözbilir also draws attention to the importance of post-earthquake reconstruction; he states that the new construction projects initiated in the region are being made more durable with modern technology and standards. Emphasizing that 500 thousand residences are planned to be built within the scope of the housing project of the century, and that this number could exceed one million over time, Prof. Dr. Sözbilir points out the necessity of abandoning old structures in particular.

'IT HAS EXCEEDED 600'

Regarding the measures to be taken to reduce earthquake risk, he says: "In Turkey, especially after the major earthquake in 2023, the faults in Turkey were handled from scratch. It is being updated to see if there are any active faults not included in our map. Turkey's new active fault map will be announced by our state in the coming months. Accordingly, we can say that there is an increase in the number of active faults in Turkey. That is, our 485 active faults will have exceeded 600. In this case, our earthquake hazard in Turkey is increasing. Different faults will emerge in our different provinces. It is necessary to make a new arrangement regarding them. Therefore, we will need to give twice as much importance to risk reduction efforts as we currently do."

These new fault lines added to Turkey's updating active fault map further increase the necessity of preparation against earthquakes in the future. Experts state that possible losses can be prevented both by establishing new and robust cities and by renewing the existing building stock.