New Year price hikes loom after November inflation: Tax burden to increase
While November inflation data draws attention with the growth rates of the CPI and PPI, the most striking development is that the cumulative increase in the PPI will lead to tax-driven price hikes on many items at the start of the new year.
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November inflation data has been released. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.87% monthly, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) showed an increase of 0.84%. However, the most notable picture is that the annual increase in the PPI will cumulatively trigger tax hikes on various products at the start of the new year.
SCT HIKES COMING AT THE START OF THE YEAR
With the November data, the PPI increase for the July–November period reached 9.53%. If the rate reaches around 10.63% with the addition of December data, the fixed amounts of the Special Consumption Tax (SCT) will automatically increase by 10.63% as of January 1. This situation will pave the way for new price hikes on many products.
It was stated that while the PPI increase does not directly affect retiree and civil servant salaries, it will cause price increases across a wide range of products, from fuel to tobacco products, and from alcohol to LPG.
Sözcü columnist and tax expert Mahmut Aydoğmuş explained that thanks to this mechanism, which operates independently of the revaluation rate (YDO), the fixed SCT amounts in the SCT Law will be increased by the rate of the PPI. According to Aydoğmuş, prices for the following products will increase directly at the start of the new year:
Diesel, gasoline, LPG
Natural gas and petroleum derivatives used in industry
Tobacco products
Alcoholic beverages
NEW TAX BURDEN ON FUEL
If the PPI is 10.63%, the new fixed SCT amounts to be applied will be as follows:
Diesel: 12.9973 TL › 14.3789 TL
95 Octane Gasoline: 13.8642 TL › 15.3380 TL
LPG: 10.6433 TL › 11.7745 TL
When a 20% VAT is calculated on these amounts, the minimum price hike rates reflected at the pump will be as follows:
Diesel: +1.66 TL
Gasoline: +1.77 TL
LPG: +1.36 TL
These increases show only the minimum price hike effect caused by taxes. Distribution, refinery, and exchange rate effects are not included in these figures.
EXPECTATION OF PRICE HIKES IN CIGARETTES
In cigarette prices, a price increase is expected due to the effect of the 45% relative SCT and the fixed SCT. The fixed amount, which was 12.1495 TL on October 24, 2025, had been increased to 16 TL. With the PPI increase, this figure will change as follows:
Fixed SCT: 16.00 TL › 17.7008 TL
In this case, there will be a cost increase of at least 2.04 TL including VAT. This increase is projected to be reflected in cigarette packs as approximately 5 TL.
DOUBLE PRICE HIKE ON ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES
For alcoholic beverages, prices are expected to increase by at least 12.76% due to the fixed SCT increase and the VAT added on top.
TAX-DRIVEN PRICE HIKE CALENDAR
In November, the seemingly calm increases in the CPI and PPI will appear to consumers at the start of the new year as automatic tax hikes. In particular, new price hikes on fuel, cigarettes, and alcoholic beverages will be among the most felt price changes at the beginning of 2024.