Pollster close to the government reveals the latest status in the election race! 'Votes are neck and neck in two cities'

With only a few days left until the local elections, public attention has turned to election polls.

As research companies continue their polling efforts, Hakan Bayrakçı, President of SONAR Research, known for his proximity to the government, evaluated the latest situation.

Speaking to Çiğdem Yılmaz from Milliyet, Bayrakçı described CHP's Istanbul candidate, current IMM Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, as a "potential leadership candidate against Erdoğan," while commenting, "It is Murat Kurum who has brought the AK Party neck and neck with İmamoğlu."

Highlights from Bayrakçı's statements are as follows:

Do the last 15 days of the election matter?

The importance is this; there are places that will end in a dead heat. One of these is Istanbul, and the other is Muğla. The last 15 days are quite important for these neck-and-neck places. Someone could win or lose by one point. In a few polls conducted, İmamoğlu came out a few points ahead, but in a few polls, the difference was in terms of the number of people. In one poll, İmamoğlu was ahead by a margin of 10 people. For this reason, the last 15 days are of great importance. Because something happens, and everything changes. For example, a CHP candidate saying, "Everyone can enter my door, but those from DEM cannot." İmamoğlu made a harsh move, he even scolded the person who made this statement. Such harshness also has a negative side. He is already getting 4-4.5 percent of the vote from DEM. However, you are also getting votes from nationalist and secular voters who are opposed to the AK Party. This rhetoric is more or less saying, "You don't come." Now, if one more statement like this occurs, it will cost half a point or a point.

How honest are voters in polls?

They are largely honest. Indeed, if they were not honest, SONAR would not have been able to predict the last three elections with pinpoint accuracy. However, approximately 10 percent of the people interviewed do not fully state their opinions for various reasons.

What do you think are the advantages of İmamoğlu and Kurum?

It appears that the voter has given İmamoğlu a different political identity. "The man who designs the CHP" and "a potential leadership candidate against Erdoğan." Whether he succeeds or not is a separate issue, but the Istanbul voter has such credit for him. Against this position of İmamoğlu, it is Murat Kurum who has brought the AK Party neck and neck with İmamoğlu. If there had been another candidate instead of Kurum, it is clear that İmamoğlu would have won by 4-5 points. Kurum does not engage in politics, and some AK Party members criticize this. He explains the actions he will take. This is the most correct approach for the AK Party to take in Istanbul. Also, Kurum stands out with his technical and bureaucratic identity. Not talking too much is also an advantage.

What are the aspects you see as negative?

İmamoğlu shows more advantage to DEM than necessary, and this stops other votes that would come. As for Kurum, his tone of voice is always constant when he takes the podium. He is not enthusiastic.

For voters who will change their minds, are old conventional election campaigns more effective, or is social media with developing technology more effective?

Of course, campaigns based on new technology, social media, and live broadcasts are effective. However, it does not work without classic campaigns either. For example, if you do not hold a square rally, an image is formed for your party leader that "he cannot go out to the squares." For example, if you do not have posters, an image is formed for your organization that "it is not working." You are forced to use both styles. Both continue to have an effect for different reasons.