Prof. Dr. Osman Bektaş: The 7.4 earthquake scenario for Istanbul must be re-evaluated with new data

Geology expert Prof. Dr. Osman Bektaş evaluated recent scientific research on the fault system in the Sea of Marmara, stating that the 7.4 magnitude earthquake scenario that has long been on the agenda for Istanbul must be reconsidered.

In a post on his social media account, Bektaş stated that geophysical and seismological studies conducted by German and Japanese scientists between 2019 and 2023 have provided significant data regarding the structure and energy accumulation of the faults in the Marmara region.

Arguing that this data should be evaluated alongside existing assumptions, Bektaş commented on the major earthquake scenarios frequently discussed by the public, stating, "Istanbul's fate is not 7.4."

According to Prof. Dr. Bektaş, the probability of the fault segments on the floor of the Sea of Marmara rupturing all at once and in a unified manner is low.

For this reason, Bektaş argued that discussions regarding the earthquake hazard for Istanbul should not be tied to a single scenario.

While experts point out that the Marmara region is one of the most critical areas in Turkey in terms of earthquake risk, they emphasize that structural safety, preparedness plans, and scientific data must be monitored in an up-to-date manner.